[情報] 三星祭出激進降價策略 力拚追趕HBM競賽

原文：

Samsung launches aggressive price-cut strategy to catch up in HBM competition

HBM continues to be a critical resource as the AI boom is further tightening supply and demand in the memory industry. Memory leader Samsung Electronics isfixated on reclaiming its dominance, reportedly launching a 30% price cut strategy in an attempt to catch up after delays in its 12-layer HBM3E certification.

With HBM4 expected to emerge in 2026, Samsung is anticipated to maintain its aggressive pricing edge, with initial quotes about 6-8% lower than those of SKHynix.

Samsung's 12-layer HBM3E began shipments to Nvidia in the fourth quarter of 2025. Although the estimated shipment volume for the quarter was tens of thousands of units, it is still considered too late relative to its two main rivals.

SK Hynix began mass production of 12-layer HBM3E in the second half of 2024, and Micron successfully cleared certification in early 2025, driving strong revenue and profit growth throughout the year. Despite now supplying 12-layer HBM3E to US GPU makers, Samsung had struggled to meet Nvidia's thermal and certification standards for months.

After about eighteen months of repeated testing and revisions, Samsung finally cleared all certification hurdles in the second half of 2025, joining SK Hynix and Micron as NVIDIA's third approved HBM3E supplier. However, SK Hynix andMicron had already locked in sales allocations through 2026, putting Samsung at a disadvantage. Furthermore, Samsung's thermal issues have not been resolved, so its products still run hotter than rivals' and require integration with liquid-cooled AI servers.

Samsung races to stabilize yields The average HBM3E price is expected to decline in 2026. Samsung has already taken the lead with steep price reductions, with around 30% lower than its competitors. The company's previous generation 1b DRAM node suffered from poor yields and design issues, adding pressure for Samsung to avoid another setback in the upcoming HBM4. Therefore, Samsung has jumped directly to the more advanced 1c DRAM node for HBM4.

Samsung's HBM4 certification results are expected in November, though the shift to 1c DRAM also raises concerns about potential yield instability. Meanwhile, SK Hynix announced in September that its HBM4 mass-production preparations are complete. It can begin shipments as soon as key customers give the green light. SK Hynix has taken a more cautious approach, using TSMC's 12nm process for its base die and stacking its in-house 1b DRAM.

However, structural changes in the HBM4 process have increased overall production costs, and early market forecasts suggested that SK Hynix's HBM4 could bepriced 60-70% higher than the previous generation. However, recent estimates suggest that HBM4's price hike may fall short of expectations. HBM4 costs roughly 30% more than its predecessor, and the added TSMC logic die accounts for about 20% of the total production cost. With intensifying supply for HBM4 in 2026, this could limit SK Hynix's price increase to around 20%.

Despite the memory industry growing through rising HBM shipments and unit prices, SK Hynix could face profit margin pressure as it seeks to defend its dominance in the HBM market. Sights on HBM4 market share Micron recently announcedthat it has begun shipping 12-layer HBM4 samples, boasting 2.8TB/s bandwidth and speeds of up to 11Gbps, exceeding JEDEC's official 8Gbps specification. Samsung has showcased similar HBM4 specifications and is targeting the first quarter of 2026 for shipments. It plans to regain market share through aggressivepricing, reportedly offering discounts several percentage points deeper than competitors. However, it has yet to receive formal approval from Nvidia for HBM4 supply.

Micron has expressed confidence that its HBM market share in 2026 will exceedthat of 2025, suggesting that any market shifts that come as HBM4 competitionbegins are unlikely to have a material impact on its position.

翻譯：

三星祭出激進降價策略　力拚追趕HBM競賽

隨著AI熱潮推動記憶體市場的供需更加吃緊，HBM（高頻寬記憶體）持續成為關鍵資源。記憶體龍頭三星電子（Samsung Electronics）為了奪回主導地位，據傳祭出最高達三成的降價策略，企圖在12層HBM3E產品認證延誤後迅速追趕對手。

由於HBM4預計將於2026年問世，三星預期將維持激進的價格策略，初期報價比SK海力士（SK Hynix）低約6%至8%。

三星的12層HBM3E已於2025年第四季開始出貨給NVIDIA，雖然季度出貨量達數萬顆，但相較於兩大競爭對手仍屬落後。

SK海力士早在2024年下半年就已量產12層HBM3E，美光（Micron）也於2025年初順利通過認證，帶動全年營收與獲利大幅成長。相較之下，三星過去數月一直無法通過NVIDIA在散熱與認證方面的嚴格要求。

經歷約18個月的反覆測試與修正後，三星終於在2025年下半年通過所有認證門檻，正式成為繼SK海力士與美光之後，NVIDIA第三家獲准的HBM3E供應商。然而，由於SK海力士與美光已預先鎖定至2026年的銷售配額，使三星在時程上仍居劣勢。此外，三星的散熱問題尚未完全解決，其產品運作溫度仍高於競爭對手，需要搭配液冷式AI伺服器使用。

三星全力穩定良率

2026年HBM3E平均價格預料將下滑，三星已率先祭出約比同業低30%的大幅降價。由於前一代1b DRAM製程良率不佳且設計問題頻傳，三星面臨巨大壓力，必須避免在即將推出的HBM4再次失利，因此決定直接跳過1b節點，採用更先進的1c DRAM製程開發HBM4。

HBM4的認證結果預計在11月揭曉，但轉向1c製程也引發外界對良率穩定性的疑慮。

另一方面，SK海力士已在9月宣布完成HBM4量產準備，一旦主要客戶點頭，即可開始出貨。SK海力士採取較保守策略，使用台積電（TSMC）的12奈米製程作為基底晶片（base die），上層堆疊則為自家1b DRAM。不過，HBM4製程結構變動導致整體生產成本增加，早期市場預測指出，HBM4價格可能比前一代高出60%至70%。

然而，最新估計顯示HBM4漲幅可能不如預期，成本僅約比前一代高出30%，其中台積電邏輯晶片約占總成本的20%。隨著2026年HBM4供應量增加，SK海力士的實際漲價幅度可能被壓縮至約20%。

儘管HBM出貨量與單價提升帶動整體記憶體產業成長，SK海力士在守住市場龍頭地位的同時，利潤率恐面臨壓力。

力拚HBM4市占率

美光近日宣布已開始出貨12層HBM4樣品，頻寬達2.8TB/s、速度最高可達11Gbps，超越JEDEC正式規範的8Gbps。三星也展示了類似規格的HBM4產品，預計在2026年第一季出貨，並以更具侵略性的價格策略爭取市占率，報導指出三星的報價比競爭對手再低數個百分點。但目前仍未獲得NVIDIA對HBM4供應的正式批准。

美光則對其市場地位充滿信心，預期2026年HBM市占率將高於2025年，顯示即便HBM4競爭開打，市場結構的變化對其影響仍有限。

出處：Siu Han, Taipei; Emily Kuo, DIGITIMES Asia.
Monday 27 October 2025.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251027PD203/samsung-hbm4-price-competition-sk-hynix.html

心得：美股記憶體消息出來後轉跌，明天台股開盤，記憶體相關個股會電梯向_？

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