Re: [新聞] 拜登：通膨為短期現象 聯準會必要時應維

※ 引述《s58565254 (猜囉)》之銘言：
: 原文標題：拜登：通膨為短期現象 聯準會必要時應維持美國經濟復甦
: 原文連結：https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4682899?exp=a
: 發布時間：鉅亨網編譯張博翔2021/07/20 11:40
: 原文內容：
: 美國總統拜登周一 (19 日) 表示，當前物價飆漲預料只是暫時現象，但政府明白，長期: 不受控制的通膨更需警戒，且將對經濟構成真正挑戰，他認為聯準會 (Fed) 必要時應該: 設法支持美國經濟復甦，但不忘強調他尊重央行決策獨立性。
: 拜登表示，隨著美國經濟恢復強勁已出現一些物價上漲跡象，白宮正在盡其所能解決供應: 鏈瓶頸引發的通膨問題，並指出先前暴漲的木材近期正在放緩。
: 拜登接著示警：「倘若長期經歷難以控制的通膨，反而會對美國經濟構成真正的挑戰，儘: 管這不是我們今天所看到的現象，但我們時時警惕並即時回應。」
: 拜登還向聯準會主席鮑爾 (Jerome Powell) 表示：「聯準會是獨立的機構，也應該採取: 他們認為必要的任何步驟，以支持強勁、持久的經濟復甦。」
: 美國 6 月消費者物價指數 (CPI) 上漲 0.9%，是 13 年來最大漲幅。一項調查顯示，由: 於通膨隱憂日益加劇，美國 7 月的消費者信心指數下降到 5 個月來新低，不過經濟學家: 仍認為，通膨上升只是暫時性現象。
: 此外，拜登仍持續計劃擴大對基礎設施的投資、照顧老人和兒童，表示這將有助於通過提: 高生產率來減輕未來的通膨壓力。拜登說：「這些措施將提高美國生產力，在不提高物價: 下提高工資。這將減輕通膨壓力，提高勞動力，從而在未來幾年內降低物價。」
: 儘管批評人士曾多次警告拜登的經濟政策將導致資本主義終結，但經濟學家預估，美國的: 經濟增速將達到 40 年來的最高水準。拜登說：「這證明資本主義還存在，我們目前正取: 得重大進展，以確保該政策能為美國人民帶來好處。」
: 心得/評論： ※必需填寫滿20字
: 資本主義終結會導致什麼後果
: 為什麼要害怕資本主義終結
: 是不是害怕辣個男人的右手
: 捶倒資本主義的高牆
: 人民的意志!人民的法槌!

你們要的翻譯來了

題外話
拜登就是ㄧ個善良守序的總統
比起混亂邪惡的川普來說很好預測
先前的反壟斷總統命令也是跟聯合國決議有關
有興趣的自己去找聯合國的報告吧

關於通膨這件事
我們看權威the FED的董事會會議紀錄就好
最近一次是7/7釋出的,6/15~16的會議紀錄
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210707a.htm

先說結論
承續我以前發的文
現在市場很關心熱錢什麼時候要收回去
原本說好2023年底不會全收，但市場一直覺得會提前

現在由於短期通膨比預期高
7/16密西根大學公佈的消費者信心指數又比預期差
加上OPEC增產、疫情增溫，美股周一大跌只是必然

種種跡象顯示，收熱錢的時間點可能就像商務艙的承諾一樣
要跳票了
而拜登是在暗示FED
不要鐵齒，該收就收

而守序善良的拜登不忘說:我尊重FED的獨立性
不像混亂邪惡的川普曾說:You are FIRED!

以下正文
聯準會的任務只有一個，就是維護世界核平
不是啦，是維持長期通膨穩定

什麼叫長期?
凱因斯說，長期下來我們都死了
所以你死了就叫長期，所以請趕快去死一死吧這樣就升息了

不想死?那好吧，1年以下叫短期，3年以上夠資格叫長期
(不過還是要看情況,看你問的是經濟學家,會計師,基金經理人,政客還是酒駕累犯)

FED仍然維持長期通膨2%的目標
不像ECB已將below 2%改成2%

p.4我們看到
"Measures of expectations for Federal Reserve policy were little changed overthe period. The median re-spondent to the Desk’s surveys of primary dealers
and market participants continued to expect the pace of Federal Reserve
asset purchases to begin to decline in the first quarter of 2022, although
most respondents also saw a reasonable chance that this decline could occur
one quarter earlier or later. The median respondent expected purchases to
end in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Desk’s survey measures of the
expected path of the target federal funds rate were also fairly steady, and
the median respondent continued to expect the first target rate increase to
occur in the third quarter of 2023. Nearly all Desk survey respondents
anticipated that the Summary of Economic Projections would show the median
Committee participant projecting either no increase in the target range or
one ¼ percentage point increase by the end of 2023."

聯準會預估
1. 2022Q1開始減少收購公債(2022Q1開始放緩熱錢流出)
2. 也有可能提早到2021Q4或延後到2022Q2
3. 2022Q4停止收購公債
4. 2023Q3才會開始升息，有也是1碼

現在市場跟拜登就是在說:
哩咧騙肖!通膨這麼高，還要等到2023年底?

那通膨到底高不高?
p.4又看到
"Over the period, market participants focused on data showing lower employmentgrowth and higher inflation readings than had been expected. The median 2021
core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast from the OpenMarket Desk’s Survey of Primary Dealers jumped nearly 1 percentage point
from the previous survey. However, median forecasts for 2022 and 2023 each
rose less than 0.1 percent, suggesting expectations for inflationary
pressures to subside. Inflation compensation as measured by five-year
breakeven rates on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities peaked in
mid-May at the highest level in more than a decade, but the increase was
driven almost entirely by higher inflation compensation at short horizons.
Indeed, one-year-forward inflation compensation at horizons beyond a year wasrelatively stable."

所以FED覺得不高，而殖利率飆升只是短期通膨的補貼現象
不過當時飆的是3年期、5年期公債，但7月以來連10年期也飆了
市場覺得不妙

那為什麼FED覺得你各位大驚小怪?
p.5看到
"The information available at the time of the June 15–16 meeting suggested
that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) was expanding in the second
quarter at a pace that was faster than in the first quarter of the year.
Moreover, labor market conditions had improved further in April and May.
Consumer price inflation through April—as measured by the 12-month percentagechange in the PCE price index—had picked up notably, largely reflecting
transitory factors."

所以FED覺得鑒於GDP成長、失業率降、解封增加消費
通膨上升是短期現象

又
"Recent 12-month change measures of inflation, using either PCE prices or theconsumer price index (CPI), were boosted significantly by the base effects ofthe drop in prices from the spring of 2020 rolling out of the calculation.
In addition, a surge in demand as the economy reopened further, combined
with production bottlenecks and supply constraints, contributed
to the large recent monthly price increases. Total PCE price inflation
was 3.6 percent over the 12 months ending in April. Core PCE price inflation,which excludes changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer food prices,was 3.1 percent over the 12 months ending in April. In contrast,
the trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE inflation constructed by the FederalReserve Bank of Dallas was 1.8 percent in April. In May, the 12-month
change in the CPI was 5 percent, while core CPI inflation was 3.8 percent
over the same period. In the second quarter, the staff’s common
inflation expectations index, which combines information from many indicatorsof inflation expectations and inflation compensation, had returned to
the level that prevailed in 2014, a time when inflation was modest."

這裡是數學問題
6月開的會看的是2020.05~2021.04的數字
不論CPI或PCE
橫跨了2020.06~2020.12美國疫情嚴重的時間
當時消費不振，自然物價低

PCE是3.6,core PCE是3.1證明這點

FED認為由於基期數字低，而解封後物價又漲得特別快
為什快?因為塞港、缺晶片、缺原料、斷料。
所以都是短期現象
而FED自己的模型顯示，通膨和2014年相比並非惡化

FED本段結論:
"Recent data pointed to a pickup in foreign economic activity in the second
quarter. Demand improved as social-distancing restrictions were lifted in theUnited Kingdom and the euro area following the rollout of vaccines. With the
economic reopening under way, purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) in both the
manufacturing and services sectors were strong in Europe in April and May.
In the emerging market economies (EMEs), manufacturing PMIs and exports were
generally robust. However, many EMEs continued to strug-gle to contain the virus amid a
slow pace of vaccinations, particularly in South America and parts of Asia.
Consumer price inflation continued to rise in many foreign economies,
primarily driven by rebounding energy prices and the fading effects of steep
price declines seen early last year. Price increases were concentrated in
relatively few items, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures
remained subdued amid considerable economic slack.

但我們知道疫苗打得差不多的歐洲又燃起來了
而開發中國家沒好過
但反過來說，武肺不死，寬鬆貨幣政策就不會死

p.8
"The staff’s near-term outlook for inflation was revised up markedly, but thestaff continued to expect the rise in inflation this year to be transitory.
The 12-month change in total and core PCE prices had moved well above 2
percent in April, and incoming CPI data sug-gested that PCE price inflation
would remain high in May. The recent 12-month measures of inflation were
being boosted significantly by the base effects of the drop in prices from
the spring of 2020 rolling out of the calculation. In addition, the surge in
demand as the economy reopened further, combined with production bottlenecks
and supply constraints, contributed to the large recent monthly price
increases. The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually
move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base
effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases, but PCE price
inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this
year. Over the next year, the transitory price increases caused by
bottlenecks and supply constraints were expected to largely reverse, and the
growth in demand was forecast to ease. As a result, inflation was projected
to slow to slightly below 2 percent in 2022 before moving back up to a bit
above 2 percent in 2023, supported by high levels of resource utilization."

這段很重要了
FED早就預料到，今年年底以前通膨都會超過2%
明年起(如果疫情真的真的真的趨緩也真的都解封解封解封)
也都不塞港塞港塞港，供需都達到平衡
在2022年才會漸漸回到2%以下

這也是為何FED將進一步的財政政策改變或貼息計畫設在2022年&2023年底

下一段FED提到疫情不確定性對未來經濟的影響
也提到未來可能會出現平坦的菲利浦曲線
呈現經濟成長但通膨相對低的情況
我就不貼了

又p.9
"That said, participants generally saw supply disruptions and labor shortagesas constraining the expansion of economic activity this year. Participants’
projections of real GDP growth in 2022 and 2023 were generally little changed."

所以FED還是很樂觀的
但7月的消費者信心指數已經給FED一巴掌了
雖然還有很多其他考量因素
但市場開始不禁懷疑
風向變了?

總結:
如果
1.GDP持續成長+失業率下降+疫苗沒打完+沒全球解封
通膨高於2都是合理的
2.反之，上數前提若反轉但通膨仍高，就是FED提早升息的關鍵
3.FED已經打定主意觀察到年底，今年內是不可能升息的
4.提前(2023年底前)升息的機率愈來愈高，但不會是今年
5.放緩收購公債的腳步則有可能提前到2021Q4

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