[颱風] 02C凱利 預計中途死在跨洋的路上

從18Z拖到21Z的時候小報命名
但就強度上上下下還不穩
主要是風場達標，但結構還不符合標準

000
WTPA42 PHFO 282034
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

ASCAT data from around 1830 Z showed a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds just north of the center of the system.
Based on that data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical
storm Keli with maximum winds of about 35 kt. Although the winds
are estimated to be higher than earlier this morning, satellite
images indicate that the deep convection has generally decreased
during the past few hours. Keli is a very compact storm with its
associated cloud field extending only about 90 n mi across.

The storm is moving westward at about 9 kt. Keli is expected to
continue westward, following Iona, during the next few days as it
remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. The latest
track models have trended a little to the north and are faster this
cycle, and the official forecast has been nudged in those
directions.

The environmental conditions could favor a little more strengthening
during the next day or so while the storm is over relatively warm
water, embedded in a moist air mass, and in generally moderate
shear conditions. By the middle of the week, however, Iona's outflow
will likely impinge on the cyclone. These unfavorable upper-level
winds and stable air should end the opportunity for strengthening
and cause weakening. Most of the models show Keli dissipating in
about 2 days, except for the GFS which hangs on to the cyclone for
about 3 days. Based on the latest guidance, the official forecast
has moved up dissipation by 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 12.1N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.1N 146.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 12.1N 148.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 12.3N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 12.3N 153.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 12.2N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 11.9N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

https://i.imgur.com/67M1YRP.png

【衛星強度分析】
—
TXPN42 PHFO 281800
TCSNP2
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1800 UTC MON JUL 28 2025
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CP022025
B. 28/1730Z
C. 12.0N
D. 143.8W
E. GOES-18
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6 HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED TO SE OF DEEP
CONVECTION THAT WRAPS 0.35 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL. DT IS 2.0. PT
AGREES. MET UNAVAILABLE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
$$

TPPZ01 PGTW 281817
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C (SE OF HILO)
B. 28/1700Z
C. 12.37N
D. 144.05W
E. SIX/GOES18
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
NEVAREZ

TXPN27 KNES 281817
TCSCNP
A. 02C (NONAME)
B. 28/1730Z
C. 12.0N
D. 143.8W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SPIRAL, LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER ON THE
SE EDGE OF A SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5 USING THE SHEAR
PATTERN. THE MET IS 1.5. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE
TO UNCERTAINITY IN CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...MONAGHAN

【系集路徑預測】
—
GFS看好發展
https://i.imgur.com/TlWg0BB.png

但EC跟AI不看好
https://i.imgur.com/ND69MBl.png
https://i.imgur.com/tJz0ohh.png

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