[其他] Coface : 對全球景氣的預估

Coface : 科法斯

全球信用保險、風險管理及全球經濟研究的指標機構。

原文出自coface自己網站發佈

https://m.coface.com/News-Publications/News/Coface-Barometer-COVID-19-heading-towards-a-sudden-global-surge-in-business-insolvencies

以下貼出全文 並簡單翻譯重點

04/06/2020

COUNTRY RISK AND ECONOMIC STUDIES
COFACE BAROMETER: COVID-19 - HEADING TOWARDS A SUDDEN GLOBAL SURGE IN BUSINESS INSOLVENCIES

At first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic.
At first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic.
Its repercussions have created a double shock – supply and demand – that is affecting a large number of industries all over the world.

The uniqueness of this crisis makes comparisons with the previous ones useless, as they all had financial origins (e.g. global credit crisis of 2008-09, great depression of 1929).

The question is no longer which countries and sectors of activity will be affected by this shock, but rather which few will be spared.

The shock could be even more violent in emerging economies: in addition to managing the pandemic, which will be more difficult for them, they are also facing the fall in oil prices, as well as capital

In this context, Coface forecasts that 2020 will see the global economy’s first recession since 2009, with a growth rate of -1.3% (after +2.5% in 2019). Coface also expects recessions in 68 countries

簡單重點翻譯

因為武漢肺炎影響

Coface預測：2020年將是全球經濟自2009年以來的首次衰退，2020年預估成長率為-1.3％（2019年為+ 2.5％）。

Coface還預計68個國家/地區將出現衰退（去年僅為11個國家），今年全球貿易將下降4.3％（2019年下降-0.4％）

全球企業倒閉數量將增長25％（與Coface之前1月份作的預測相比） + 2％）。

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