[分享] Fangraphs-佐佐木朗希 球探報告

國際新秀排第四,前三山本、李政厚、千賀

Name ETA Ht Wt FV Risk
Roki Sasaki SP NPB 2026 20.3 6'3 203 R/R 45+ High

速球 滑球 控球 機制(沒指叉)
65/65 40/45 30/45 plus

Full Report(以下大概翻譯)

Sasaki cemented a legacy of his own while he was in high school. There was a
stretch when he was asked to throw nearly 500 pitches in an eight-day span,
including all of a 12-inning complete game during which he also hit the
game-winning two-run homer.

朗希高中時就是傳說,他曾在8天之間投接近500球,其中一場他12局完投勝然後打出致勝兩分砲

He was the first pick in the 2019 NPB draft and had much more arm strength thanthe typical top-of-the-class arm over there, touching 101 and sitting around
97. Sasaki amassed a 1.98 ERA in 77 total innings across 15 starts split
between the Eastern league (the minors in Japan, 5 starts) and Pacific League(their top league, 10 starts). Remember that we're talking about someone who
was 19 at the time (Sasaki turned 20 in November).

19年NPB一指,他擁有比日本頂級選秀大物更好的剛腕,均速落在97mph,最快能摸到101,
年僅19歲的他在去年兩個一二軍合記15場先發77局僅有1.98防禦率

He mostly sat 93-98 with his fastball in 2021, and already has a swing-and-misssplitter that has a ridiculous amount of movement considering it averages 87
mph. Sasaki's slider is also very hard, typically 86-88, but he doesn't finishit as consistently as his splitter. If he ever learns to locate the slider
consistently, then Sasaki could be a dominant big league starter.

去年他的速球落在93-98,此外他還有一顆能製造揮空、均速87mph、位移很誇張的指叉,
他的滑球也很快,86-88,但不如指叉穩定,如果他能夠將滑球控的更穩定,他能成為很好
的大聯盟投手

His delivery comes at a slower pace (longer arm actions run counter to the waypitchers are being developed more often in the U.S.), and the track record forpitchers who throw as hard as Sasaki does, when they're as young as Sasaki was,adds risk to his profile. But this kid has also performed in one of the world'stop leagues as a teenager and has premium stuff.

他的投球機制節奏較慢(相較於美國的投手有更長的arm actions),此外像朗希這種年輕時就丟這麼快的投手,其實有著比較不好的track record,風險會比較高。

不過不可否認朗希在很年輕的時候就在NPB有一定水準的表現並展現了頂尖的stuff

Were he a college arm, he probably wouldn't be a 1-1 favorite (Casey Mize alsohad a split-driven mix but better breaking stuff and command than Sasaki) butrather is more like a typical top three or five pick.

如果朗希是美國大學投手,他應該不會是狀元郎的熱門人選(18年的狀元Casey Mize有一樣指叉為主的武器庫,但他的其他變化球跟控球比朗希好),但會是前三或前五順位的候選人

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心得

以FanGraphs來說,要FV50以上才會進入百大名單,意思就是FV45+的朗希,季前在FG的評價是百大邊緣

但如果把朗希放到選秀裡,他會是2022選秀中最年輕的大學生之一,而且已經打過2A等級的聯盟(一般來說大學生最快也是隔年才會上2A),如果FG對他的評估有前三或前五順位,這個順位中選的基本上都保底百大

雖然朗希在日職的K:BB相當不錯,消除了一些質疑的聲音,但像FG的主筆Longenhagen不太喜歡他的投球機制,導致他在控球的評價(30/45)上偏低

總結,現階段的朗希在美國那邊的評估很有機會進入百大,如果他今年能維持下去,並且持續展示他的滑球跟控球(我就當他指叉已經是plus等級),相信季末的球探報告會很不一樣

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我是覺得超不了BWJ、Adley跟J-Rod,其他不好說,不過前面幾個應該都會畢業光

美國人不喜歡他機制

山本FV55,機制++

可惜的是他還有一陣子才可能挑戰美國...

50已經很好了XD

本來就是這樣,我個人是覺得帥、控得進去就好

李政厚的hit tool預測給到70,這是很恐怖的分數 對我們來說可能是外野長槍跟游擊砲的區別,但對他們球探來說可能都是平均或以上的球員

我也不喜歡那種抬腿XD

hit tool是野手最重要的tool,能拿到70分的野手,FV不可能太爛

FG的榜單偏好其實也是蠻重的XD

他game power預測比我大村上好還蠻扯的