Re: [討論] 打者跑一壘用撲的到底有什麼效果

發現在2017年MLB有這一篇文章

分析用的球員是Brett Gardner

作者找了Gardner 在2017賽季的五個最快的play做分析

想看影片請點連結

1.
Apr. 21, 2017 (No slide 沒撲)

30.2 feet per second, 3.67 seconds home-to-first

Gardner 想靠觸擊上一壘，該賽季跑最快的一次

2.
Aug. 17, 2017 (No slide 沒撲)

30.3 feet per second, 3.94 seconds home-to-first

非觸擊狀態，該賽季第二快（最快的那次因防守不足，所以不拿那次來比 inefficient defense made that one less than competitive）

3.
Aug. 28, 2017 (Slide 撲)

30.5 feet per second, 4.09 seconds home-to-first

Unlike the two full-run plays, there's now a noticable speed dip at the end of the play diagram, making it clear when the slide began. When he stopped running, he stopped maintaining his speed.

不同於前兩次全力衝刺，在這次衝刺的最後，開始撲後的速度明顯下降。當他停止跑步，就停止維持一樣的速度。

4.
Aug. 2, 2017 (Slide 撲)

30.6 feet per second, 4.09 seconds home-to-first

Again, the speed decline is clear.

一樣，速度明顯變慢

5.
Sept 22, 2016 (Slide)

30.7 feet per second, 4.11 seconds home-to-first

The speed decline upon diving is clear, and Gardner was out.

在撲時的降速很明顯，且Gardner 出局。

While five plays isn't exactly a huge sample size, these are the three fastest home-to-first times on diving plays he's put up in the past year, so this isn't a case of choosing only favorable plays. We have two of Gardner's fastest overall times, and his three fastest sliding times.

這五個樣本數雖然不多，但是兩個是全力時的前兩快跟三個撲下去的前三快。

Let's combine them all to show what these look like all at once. The speed Gardner shows for most of the play is nearly identical, and then at the end, there's a clear speed drop when he dives. It's hard to dispute.

把這五個擺在一起看，Gardner 在衝刺時的速度幾乎一樣，然後在最後，當他撲的時後，速度就降了。

If we're talking about simple running speed, that's basically true; it's difficult to accelerate without your feet. As you can see in the diagrams, Gardner's speed while sliding is dropping from slightly over 30 feet per second to more like 21 feet per second, and dropping rapidly as he gains friction.

如果單純看衝刺速度，當然撲下去變慢是正常的，沒有腳怎麼加速。如你能從影片中看到，Gardner 的速度從高於每秒30呎在撲下去後降到每秒21呎，因摩擦力快速下降。

But as we said, the argument to the contrary is that if done properly, the ability to reach out with your hands can make up for that, and Gardner has been used as an example in other studies of someone good at doing just that.

但是爭議的點是，如果能夠好好利用手的延伸，可以彌補兩者之間的速差。而Gardner 是很好的範本。

the first 80 feet or so ought to be identical no matter whether you slide or not. Would we find a difference if we look at the final 10 feet for these selected plays? If sliding is faster, that's where it would present itself.

不管撲不撲，前80呎的速度應該是一樣的。假如我們看這五個play最後的10呎會找到差異嗎？如果撲會比較快，那就是在這段會發現。

The answer is … inconclusive, perhaps. Looking at our five plays, Gardner got to the 80-feet mark in as little as 3.29 seconds and as high as 3.76 seconds. Over the last 10 feet, he got there in .34 and .35 seconds running, and .36, .36 and .37 seconds sliding.

答案是...不確定。Gardner 到達80呎的時間，最少3.29秒，最多3.76秒。最後的10呎，他花的時間是全力跑0.34跟0.35，撲的話是0.36, 0.36, 0.37秒。

If we repeat it using 85 feet rather than 80 feet, it's about the same. Over the last five feet, Gardner needed .18 and .18 running, and .18, .19 and .20 seconds sliding. It's not much of a difference. Or put another way, if he ran the final 10 feet at 30 feet per second, he'd need an estimated .33 seconds, which is what he showed in our pair of "running through" plays. If Gardner slid the final seven feet at 21 feet per second (seven, rather than 10, assuming he can reach out with his arms for the final three), that would be ... an identical .33 seconds.

如果我們看85呎的話，會發現結果是一樣的。最後的5呎，Gardner 花的時間是全力跑0.18跟0.18秒，撲則是0.18, 0.19, 0.20秒。換種方式來看，如果最後10呎他以每秒30呎的速度全力跑，那他需大概0.33秒，就如同我們在全力跑的兩個case。如果Gardner 最後7呎用每秒21呎的速度撲（7呎，因假設最後他的手延伸3呎），那麼需要的時間也是0.33秒。

最後作者有提到撲會有個問題就是容易受傷

看這篇有數字分析，想說給大家參考

有錯請見諒

https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-looks-at-running-vs-slide-into-first-c251420158

※ 引述 《suzhou (☂☁☁☁☂)》 之銘言：
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: 記得不是有人實驗過
: 跑一壘正常衝刺的速度
: 會比用撲的速度更快
: 但為何仍然有不少選手打完往一壘跑要用撲的？
: 不知是否還有人持續做更仔細的相關實驗分析？
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: 　

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