Re: [問題] 木瓜依然車手冠軍的機率為幾%？
剛剛看國際賭盤的WDC賠率
(不含本金)
Pos Driver 英制Odds 十進Odds
1 O.Piastri 10/11 1.91
2 M.Verstappen 9/4 3.25
3 L.Norris 11/4 3.75
4 G.Russell 500/1 501.00
5 C.Leclerc 3000/1 3001.00
翻轉成隱含機率，再扣除賭場方那利潤的十趴機率
Pos Driver 原始隱含機率 調整機率
1 O.Piastri 52.36% 47.59%
2 M.Verstappen 30.77% 27.96%
3 L.Norris 26.67% 24.24%
4 G.Russell 0.20% 0.18%
5 C.Leclerc 0.03% 0.03%
Sum 110.03% 100.00%
所以賭盤認為兩顆木瓜之一拿到車手冠軍的機率為71.83%
--
Max竟然第二高 有趣
可是我認為下半年Pia比較不穩，Nor心態回穩又領先Ver
，應該Nor第二名比較合理
抓到 賭盤豆黑
有興趣去算台灣運彩的，抽水率高到不可思議
現在就是默認max一路追分，所以皮鴨在第一純粹是因為領先
的比較多
台彩勝負制的1.7 1.7 就是30%
冠軍制的不會算 求大開示
全部選項都買，看虧多少
Max連續兩場都超強勢 拉近必然
這跟本送錢吧？包牌Max跟Pia，滿穩的
Max是第二高,可能是Max如果追上來,麥隊可能不會堅持木瓜規
則,傾向幫分數高的Oscar贏下WDC
賠率會隨銷量調整，所以算出來會有誤差
懶惰怎還比max低 他現在還領先欸
![[問題] 木瓜依然車手冠軍的機率為幾%？](https://i.imgur.com/onDpQ6Kb.jpg "[問題] 木瓜依然車手冠軍的機率為幾%？")
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