Re: [新聞] 台灣登上最新一期經濟學人封面囉

※ 引述《ternway (do my part)》之銘言：
: 備註請放最後面 違者新聞文章刪除
: 1.媒體來源:
: ※ 例如蘋果日報、自由時報（請參考版規下方的核准媒體名單）
: 英國經濟學人
: 2.記者署名:
: ※ 若新聞沒有記者名字或編輯名字，請勿張貼，否則會被水桶14天
: ※ 外電至少要有來源或編輯 如:法新社
: 英國經濟學人
: 3.完整新聞標題:
: ※ 標題沒有完整寫出來 ---> 依照板規刪除文章
: The most dangerous place on Earth
: 地球上最危險的地方
: 4.完整新聞內文:
: ※ 社論特稿都不能貼！違者刪除（政治類水桶3個月)，貼廣告也會被刪除喔！可詳看版規: 請看本期封面
: https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2021-05-01
: 封面故事內文
夜深了，先簡單重點翻譯~

Superpower politics
超級大國政治

The most dangerous place on Earth
世界最危險的地方
America and China must work harder to avoid war over the future of Taiwan
美中兩國必須更努力避免為台灣的未來開戰

The test of a first-rate intelligence, wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald, is the
ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain
the ability to function. For decades just such an exercise of high-calibre
ambiguity has kept the peace between America and China over Taiwan, an islandof 24m people, 100 miles (160km) off China’s coast. Leaders in Beijing say
there is only one China, which they run, and that Taiwan is a rebellious partof it. America nods to the one China idea, but has spent 70 years ensuring
there are two.

多年來戰略性模糊讓美、中兩國能在台灣議題保持和平。

Today, however, this strategic ambiguity is breaking down. The United States
is coming to fear that it may no longer be able to deter China from seizing
Taiwan by force. Admiral Phil Davidson, who heads the Indo-Pacific Command,
told Congress in March that he worried about China attacking Taiwan as soon
as 2027.

但今天這招已經失效，因為美國開始擔心自己再也無法嚇阻中國武力犯台。

War would be a catastrophe, and not only because of the bloodshed in Taiwan
and the risk of escalation between two nuclear powers. One reason is
economic. The island lies at the heart of the semiconductor industry. tsmc,
the world’s most valuable chipmaker, etches 84% of the most advanced chips.
Were production at tsmc to stop, so would the global electronics industry, atincalculable cost. The firm’s technology and know-how are perhaps a decade
ahead of its rivals’, and it will take many years of work before either
America or China can hope to catch up.

如果發生戰事，後果不堪設想，除了因為死傷、兩個核子強權之間的對立升高，還有經濟上的後果。台灣的半導體產業對世界極為重要，尤其是台積電的技術領先世界大約10年，即使美中兩國也需要多年才有望趕上。

The bigger reason is that Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China
and America. Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan,a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its
diplomatic and political resolve. If the Seventh Fleet failed to turn up,
China would overnight become the dominant power in Asia. America’s allies
around the world would know that they could not count on it. Pax Americana
would collapse.

還有一個更大的理由：台灣是美中爭霸的競技場，如果中國犯台而美軍無法及時趕達，那美國盟友都會看在眼裡，所謂美國治世可能會跨台。

To understand how to avoid conflict in the Taiwan Strait, start with the
contradictions that have kept the peace during the past few decades. The
government in Beijing insists it has a duty to bring about unification—even,
as a last resort, by means of invasion. The Taiwanese, who used to agree thattheir island was part of China (albeit a non-Communist one), have taken to
electing governments that stress its separateness, while stopping short of
declaring independence. And America has protected Taiwan from Chinese
aggression, even though it recognises the government in Beijing. These
opposing ideas are bundled into what Fitzgerald’s diplomatic inheritors
blithely call the “status quo”. In fact, it is a roiling, seething source
of neurosis and doubt.

要了解如何避免台海衝突，要先了解過去幾十年是怎麼達到和平的，主要是把北京、台北、華盛頓各方的觀點不同，但能被折衷而成為一個「維持現狀」的概念。

What has changed of late is America’s perception of a tipping-point in China
’s cross-strait military build-up, 25 years in the making. The Chinese navy
has launched 90 major ships and submarines in the past five years, four to
five times as many as America has in the western Pacific. China builds over
100 advanced fighter planes each year; it has deployed space weapons and is
bristling with precision missiles that can hit Taiwan, us Navy vessels and
American bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam. In the war games that simulatea Chinese attack on Taiwan, America has started to lose.

但美方所認為中國軍力的急遽上升則打破了上述現狀，甚至在台海戰爭的模擬之中，美國已經開始無法取勝。

Some American analysts conclude that military superiority will sooner or
later tempt China into using force against Taiwan, not as a last resort but
because it can. China has talked itself into believing that America wants to
keep the Taiwan crisis boiling and may even want a war to contain China’s
rise. It has trampled the idea that Hong Kong has a separate system of
government, devaluing a similar offer designed to win over the people of
Taiwan to peaceful unification. In the South China Sea it has been convertingbarren reefs into military bases.

有些美方分析指出中國的軍事優勢遲早會讓中國真的對台灣動武，而且不再是最後手段，而是因為它做得到。同時，中國的強硬做法也在香港、南海等地得到印證。

Although China has clearly become more authoritarian and nationalistic, this
analysis is too pessimistic—perhaps because hostility to China is becoming
the default in America. Xi Jinping, China’s president, has not even begun to
prepare his people for a war likely to inflict mass casualties and economic
pain on all sides. In its 100th year the Communist Party is building its
claim to power on prosperity, stability and China’s status in its region and
growing role in the world. All that would be jeopardised by an attack whose
result, whatever the us Navy says, comes with lots of uncertainty attached,
not least over how to govern a rebellious Taiwan. Why would Mr Xi risk it allnow, when China could wait until the odds are even better?

但這樣的分析其實還是太悲觀。首先習近平根本還沒有作出任何造成祖國重大傷亡及經濟損傷這類行動的準備。而且中國在建黨100週年打算彰顯的主題是繁榮、穩定及中國在世界地位的上升，而根本沒有理由在此時去承擔動武的風險。

Yet that brings only some comfort. Nobody in America can really know what Mr
Xi intends today, let alone what he or his successor may want in the future.
China’s impatience is likely to grow. Mr Xi’s appetite for risk may
sharpen, especially if he wants unification with Taiwan to crown his legacy.

不過上述理由也不足以讓人高枕無憂，因為沒人真的知道習近平、甚至他的繼任者會想要什麼。同時，中國可能會越來越不耐。再者，習近平也可能會越來越願意承擔風險取下台灣，來當作是自己的政治遺產。

If they are to ensure that war remains too much of a gamble for China,
America and Taiwan need to think ahead. Work to re-establish an equilibrium
across the Taiwan Strait will take years. Taiwan must start to devote fewer
resources to big, expensive weapons systems that are vulnerable to Chinese
missiles and more to tactics and technologies that would frustrate an
invasion.

因此美國與台灣需要更努力設想，即使重建台海均勢會需要多年時間。譬如，台灣一定要少花錢在又大又貴卻容易被中國飛彈催毀的武器，而把錢花在真正能嚇阻入侵的戰術及科技之上。

America requires weapons to deter China from launching an amphibious
invasion; it must prepare its allies, including Japan and South Korea; and itneeds to communicate to China that its battle plans are credible. This will
be a tricky balance to strike. Deterrence usually strives to be crystal-clearabout retaliation. The message here is more subtle. China must be discouragedfrom trying to change Taiwan’s status by force even as it is reassured that
America will not support a dash for formal independence by Taiwan. The risk
of a superpower arms race is high.

美國也需要加強自己的武器，加強與日、韓等盟友的準備，並且讓中國相信美方的戰爭準備是玩真的，但同時也要讓中國相信美方不支持台灣的正式獨立。目前看來兩強間軍備競賽的風險很高。

Be under no illusions how hard it is to sustain ambiguity. Hawks in
Washington and Beijing will always be able to portray it as weakness. And
yet, seemingly useful shows of support for Taiwan, such as American warships
making port calls on the island, could be misread as a dangerous shift in
intentions.

保持模糊很難，尤其兩國的鷹派都會把模糊當作是一種示弱的表現，但若真的明確支持，譬如美艦停泊台灣的港口，則很有可能被誤讀為一種危險的立場轉變。

Most disputes are best put to rest. Those that can be resolved only in war
can often be put off and, as China’s late leader Deng Xiaoping said, left to
wiser generations. Nowhere presents such a test of statesmanship as the most
dangerous place on Earth.

絕大多數的爭端最好是能夠大事化小，尤其是那些可能會導致戰爭的事端。也許就像鄧小平說的，有些事情可以留給更有智慧的下一代去處理。在這樣世界最危險的地方，真的會需要真正政治家的智慧。

: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth: 本期專題報導
: China’s growing military confidence puts Taiwan at risk
: https://reurl.cc/ynVk5M
: 5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):
: ※ 當新聞連結過長時，需提供短網址方便網友點擊
: https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2021-05-01
: 6.備註:
: ※ 一個人三天只能張貼一則新聞，被刪或自刪也算額度內，超貼者水桶，請注意
: ※ 備註請勿張貼三日內新聞(包含連結、標題等)
: 鬼島變成英國野雞小報認證的最危險地方
: 請問單兵該如何處置

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