Re: [問卦] 三扇門的問題 33.3% or 50%

我原本也是相信機率會從33%變成66%所以要換的

可是我發現，

如果把門的數量提高到100扇

程式跑出來的結果兩者趨近於1

那不就是50/50嗎?八卦?

※ 引述《supernick (尼克黃)》之銘言：
: 安安，理論鄉民都回很多了，其實我們自己玩個十萬次就好啦
: 先決定有幾扇門，然後先隨機選個答案
: 法一：再隨便選扇門，直接對答案
: 法二：主持人從非答題者選的門以及正確答案中，再隨機選出一扇門打開
: 接著答題者從非自己第一次選的門，以及非剛才主持人選的門中，
: 再選擇一扇門做答案
: 我寫程式跑了十萬次，法一約是33.3%，法二約是66.6%啦
: 對python不熟，code在下面，請廣大鄉民幫我debug感恩
: 不會寫程式或沒有環境朋友，也可以把code貼到下面這連結玩玩看
: https://www.programiz.com/python-programming/online-compiler/
: ----
: import random
: # construct n doors in game
: DOORS = 3
: PLAY_TIMES = 100000
: win_times_1 = 0
: win_times_2 = 0
: for i in range(PLAY_TIMES):
: door = list(range(DOORS))
: # the game host chooses answer
: answer = random.choice(door)
: # the player picks one door randomly as his/her answer
: pick = random.randint(0, DOORS-1)
: # case 1: player does not change decision
: if pick == answer:
: win_times_1 += 1
: # case 2: player changes decision after host revealed one of the answer: # pick remove door and then remove from choices. cannot be answer or pick: remove_choices = list(range(DOORS))
: remove_choices.remove(answer)
: if answer != pick:
: remove_choices.remove(pick)
: remove_door = random.choice(remove_choices)
: # remove the door from list
: door.remove(remove_door)
: # remove original answer
: door.remove(pick)
: # player picks a door again
: pick = random.choice(door)
: if pick == answer:
: win_times_2 += 1
: print("No Change Winning Percentage: ", win_times_1/PLAY_TIMES * 100)
: print("Change Door Winning Percentage:", win_times_2/PLAY_TIMES * 100)

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