[外絮] Sam Vecenie NBA 2024首輪的贏家與輸家

https://psee.io/655c9v

The first round of the 2024 NBA Draft has come and gone, and it was a wild
ride with surprises up and down the board as well as a few trades that no onesaw coming.

I’ll have full draft grades out after the second day of the draft ends
Thursday night. But for now, here are the teams that I thought did
particularly well on Day 1, a couple of teams whose choices I didn’t totally
understand, and two things that I felt were worth commenting on despite
feeling relatively ambivalent about both.

2024年NBA選秀的第一輪結束了，而這一輪很瘋狂充滿了驚喜、起伏與幾個沒人預期的交易。

我(Vecenie)在第二天結束後才會出完整的選秀評分，這裡是我認為一些第一天做得特別好的球隊、幾個我無法完全理解的選擇以及2件我雖然感覺矛盾但值得討論的東西。

贏家

Utah Jazz猶他爵士

This is shaping up to be my favorite team draft of the event after Day One.
The Jazz did a remarkable job letting the board come to them after reportedlybeing in trade discussions earlier in the day to move up. Instead of giving
up some of their future picks to slide up the board and get the guy they
wanted, they stood pat and let him fall to them. I wouldn’t have put the
odds particularly high that Cody Williams would have fallen to No. 10 when
the day started, but because the Pistons surprised with Ron Holland at No. 5,the Hornets took Tidjane Salaun at No. 6 ahead of the Spurs, the Spurs moved
out of No. 8 in a deal to Minnesota, and then the Grizzlies took Zach Edey atNo. 9, the Jazz hit essentially a three-outer on the river and ended up with
their guy.

在第一天結束後我最喜歡的球隊便是猶他爵士(心得:我自己也覺得爵士選得最漂亮)。爵士在稍早被放出他們在討論讓順位上升的情報後，選擇讓選秀順其自然並做得非常出色。他們沒有放棄一些未來的選秀權來上升順位並拿到他們想要的球員，取而代之的是耐心並等待他們想要的球員掉下來。在選秀開始時我並不認為Cody Williams會掉到第10順位但在活塞以第5順位選下Ron Holland、黃鋒以第6順位搶在馬刺之前選下Tidjane Salaun、馬刺交易走第8順位最後灰熊以第9順位選下Zach Edey之後，爵士在最後一個以低機率的情況拿下他們想要的球員。

(球員球探報告 略)

Then the Jazz took Isaiah Collier at No. 29. Collier was a polarizing player
for scouts this year. I ended up with him at No. 19. The best flashes of
Collier make one think he could be an All-Star. The bad moments make you
believe he’s more likely to be a backup point guard. Unsurprisingly given
that, there’s a wide range of opinions league-wide on his future.

爵士接下來在第29順位拿下Isaiah Collier。Collier在球探之間的評價兩極。我最終將他排在了第19。Collier打好的情況是大家覺得他可能成為全明星。打爛的時刻你會覺得他比較像個替補控球後衛。所以他在聯盟的未來有者很大的差距也不意外了。

But the Jazz could use a bit more power in the backcourt. They’re quite
small and skinny back there, with Collin Sexton, Keyonte George, and Jordan
Clarkson getting most of the reps. Those players are, by and large, pull-up
shooters and guys who hit catch-and-shoot jumpers. Collier is a serious
rim-pressure player who will attack and find creases where they sometimes don’t exist. He’ll hit kickouts and make high-level passing reads. If he can
iron out the turnovers and develop a more consistent shot, this has potentialto be the kind of guard the Jazz needed. Again, this class is all about
informed bets based on your situation. Collier is a great informed bet for
the Jazz.

但爵士隊的後場確實需要更多的力量。他們的後場相對較小且瘦弱，Sexton、George和
Clarkson佔據了大部分的上場時間。這些球員大多數是投籃手，能夠在接球後跳投。
Collier是一個真正的籃下攻擊者，會在看似不存在的縫隙中找到突破口。他能夠傳球給外圍隊友，做出高水準的傳球判斷。如果他能減少失誤並發展出更穩定的投籃，這將有潛力成為爵士隊需要的那種控衛。同樣，這屆選秀的選擇都是基於球隊情況下的明智賭注。
Collier對於爵士隊來說是個很好的明智賭注。

In total, the Jazz took serious swings on upside on a roster that desperatelyneeded such swings. This is a draft that makes sense, and now we’ll find out
what they do at No. 32 on Thursday. This could really be a positive class forDanny Ainge, Justin Zanik and company if they hit on the right player there.

總的來說，爵士隊在這屆選秀上對充滿潛力的球員進行了大膽選擇，而這支隊伍急需這樣的選擇。這是一個合理的選秀，現在我們將看看他們在週四第32順位會做什麼。如果他們能在那裡選中合適的球員，這將是Danny Ainge、Justin Zanik和他們的團隊的一個非常有建樹的一屆選秀。


Washington Wizards巫師

The Wizards swung multiple big moves today, and it completely altered the
direction of their franchise.

巫師今天做出了數個重大決定，並大幅度的改變了球隊的方向。

First, they agreed to trade Deni Avdija to Portland for an absolute haul of
assets. The team received the No. 14 pick and will also receive a 2029
first-round pick, two second-round picks, and Malcolm Brogdon. Most NBA frontoffice sources who spoke with The Athletic regarding this deal said that
while they believe in Avdija and think his contract is about to become one ofthe most valuable across the NBA (he’ll make under $12 million in 2027-28),
they felt like this was more than they would have traded for Avdija. No one
would go so far as to call it an “overpay,” but there was agreement that
this was a strong return for a Wizards team that entered the day pretty
loaded with big wings in Avdija, Bilal Coulibaly and Kyle Kuzma.
Additionally, two of those sources felt that while Avdija is terrific, he’s
ultimately going to be more beneficial to a team that is trying to win now asopposed to in the early stages of a rebuild.

首先，他們同意將Deni Avdija交易至波特蘭，以換取大量資產。球隊獲得了第14順位選秀權，還將在2029年獲得一個首輪選秀權、兩個次輪選秀權和Malcolm Brogdon。大多數與The Athletic談話的NBA管理層人士表示，儘管他們相信Avdija並認為他的合約將成為全NBA最有價值的合約之一（他在2027-28賽季的薪水將不到1200萬美元），但他們認為這比他們願意為Avdija交易的資產還要多。沒有人會把這稱為"出太多的交易"，但大家一致認為這對於進入選秀日已經擁有Avdija、Bilal Coulibaly和Kyle Kuzma等多名大前鋒的巫師隊來說是很棒的回報。除此之外，兩名消息人士認為，儘管Avdija非常出色，但對於一支試圖現在贏球的球隊來說，他的價值更高，而不是在重建初期的球隊。


The Wizards also drafted Perth Wildcats big man Alex Sarr, the player I have
ranked at No. 1 on my board. We need to be clear here: Sarr is no sure thing
to be a star. He is athletic and a terrific defender. He’s long and mobile
and has the potential to be the kind of defender that every team is looking
for with how much ground he can cover, particularly across the weak side of
the court. Offensively, he has potential to shoot, has potential to handle
the ball and showed some short-roll passing flashes throughout the year. All
of this is theoretical, though. Sarr still has a ways to go developmentally.
The good news is that with the Wizards, he’s going to have time. They’re
going to be patient and allow him to continue to grow and mature over the
next few years, and hopefully become the kind of perimeter offensive and
game-breaking defensive player that teams hunt far and wide for on across theglobe.

巫師選下了來自伯斯野貓隊的長人Alex Sarr(選秀報告 略)。Sarr在球員發展上還有很長的路要走。好消息是，在巫師隊，他將有時間成長。他們會耐心地讓他在未來幾年繼續成長和成熟，希望他能成為各隊尋求的那種外圍進攻者和大幅度影響比賽的防守球員。

Washington used the No. 14 pick on Pittsburgh guard Bub Carrington, who was
probably the player that I was highest on compared to the overall consensus
this season. I had him at No. 8 on my board and think he’s a tremendous
upside swing to fill the team’s need for a lead guard. He is a real
dribble-pass-shoot threat with awesome ball-screen instincts as one of the
youngest players in the class at just 18. He is a tremendous shot-maker as a
pull-up scorer already. As a passer and playmaker, he sees the court well andclearly knows how to read the defense. Defensively, he got better throughout
the season. On top of that, he’s on a remarkably positive growth trajectory.
He was just 5-foot-8 when he was a sophomore in high school before shooting
up to around 6-foot-1 as a senior, and then continuing to grow to 6-4 before
playing a game at Pittsburgh. He didn’t have the frame to really attack the
rim then, and he’s still learning. Carrington was my favorite home run swing
in the class given what he can already do, and what I think he’s capable of
down the road.

華盛頓隊用第14順位選中了匹茲堡大學的後衛Bub Carrington，他可能是我與大部分球探們相比評價高最多的球員。我將他排在榜單第8位，認為他是一個有巨大潛力的選擇，能滿足球隊對主力控衛的需求。他是個真正的運球、傳球和投籃威脅，擁有出色的擋拆本能，是本屆選秀中最年輕的球員之一，年僅18歲。他已經是一個出色的急停跳投得分手。在傳球和組織方面，他閱讀場上的能力很強，明顯知道如何閱讀防守。在防守端，他整個賽季都在進步。此外，他的成長軌跡非常積極。他在高二時身高只有5呎8，到了高四時增高到6呎1，並在入學匹茲堡大學前繼續增高到6呎4。當時他的身體還不足以真正攻擊籃筐，現在他還在學習。考慮到他的現有能力和未來潛力，Carrington是我最喜歡的全壘打式選擇。
The team finished its first-round picks with Kyshawn George, a player I’m
not quite as high on relative to where they took him — No. 24, after trading
the No. 51 pick to New York to move up two spots. But they’re clearly
valuing the upside trajectory here. George is another physical late bloomer
who just sprouted to 6-foot-8 within the last 18 months after growing up as alead guard. My issue with George is that despite turning 21 in December, he’
s never actually been all that productive. He averaged under three points pergame in the professional second division French league in 2022-23, then this
year averaged under eight points per game. He is 6-foot-7 with long arms and
can shoot, though, so I at least understand the swing.

巫師最後選下了Kyshawn George，相對於巫師選擇他的第24順位來說，我對他的評價不高--他們通過將第51順位交易給紐約向上兩個順位選中了George。但他們顯然看重他的潛力。喬治也是一個身體素質出色的大器晚成球員，在過去18個月中他的身高從6呎1增高到6呎8。然而，我的問題是儘管他在12月將滿21歲，但他從未真正打出好成績。在2022-23賽季的法國二級聯賽中，他的場均得分不到3分，今年的場均得分不到8分。然而，他擁有6呎7的身高和長臂，而且能投籃，所以我至少理解這個選擇。

In total, the goal here for the Wizards was simple: They tried to max out on
upside swings this year, with a type of player that they frankly lacked last
year outside of Coulibaly. Now, they have some real swings, and giving time
to this younger group of players gives them the added benefit of likely not
being very good next season, when the 2025 NBA Draft is shaping up to be muchstronger than this one at the top with names like Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper,Ace Bailey and more. This is a direction for the organization, and I’m
excited to see what this team looks like even if guys like Sarr, Carrington
and George are all more longer-term projects than ready-made NBA players.

總的來說，巫師隊的目標很簡單:他們今年試圖最大化選擇潛力球員，老實說，這種類型的球員去年在Coulibaly之外非常缺乏。現在，他們有了一些真正的潛力球員，讓這批年輕球員有更多時間成長也帶來了來年不太可能很強的附加好處，2025年NBA選秀看起來比今年的頂尖球員要強大得多，像Cooper Flagg、Dylan Harper、Ace Bailey等名字都在其中。這是一個球隊的方向，我很期待看到這支球隊的表現，即使像Sarr、Carrington和George這樣的球員都是更長期的養成項目，而不是準備好打NBA的球員。

Houston Rockets and Reed Sheppard 火箭與Reed Sheppard

To me, this is the best mix of talent and fit in the first round. I had
Sheppard at No. 2 on my board, and I love that he ended up in Houston where
his strengths will be accentuated and his potential weaknesses will be
mitigated by the players around him.

對我來說，這是本屆第一輪最具天賦與適合性於一身的選擇。我把Sheppard排在了第二，而我也很愛他最終來到休士頓的這個結果因為在這裡他的能力可以被放大且潛在的弱點可以被他的隊友緩和。

Sheppard is the best shooter in the class, and he enters a situation in
Houston where he’ll get to play with several younger players like Jalen
Green, Amen Thompson and potentially even Cam Whitmore, who have a chance to
break down defenses when they’re in their prime. He also gets to play with
Alperen Sengun, a combination in ball screens and dribble-handoffs that has
potential to be dynamic. Sheppard is also one of the best transition players
in the class, and he’ll pair with the best transition player in last year’s
draft class in Thompson and another terrific transition player in Green. Can
you imagine Thompson pushing the pace and finding Sheppard as a trailer
behind the play after forcing defenders to filter to the rim? Or what about
Thompson sprinting out to take advantage of Sheppard’s ability as a
hit-ahead passer, where he is the best in the class at that particular skill?
Sheppard是本屆選秀中最出色的射手，他進入了休士頓這樣一個環境，可以與幾位年輕球員一起打球，如Jalen Green、Amen Thompson，甚至可能還有Cam Whitmore，他們在巔峰時期有機會突破防線。他還可以與Alperen Sengun一起打球，組成一個在擋拆和傳球配合中具有多項潛力的組合。Sheppard也是本屆選秀中最出色的攻防轉換球員之一，他將與去年的選秀中最出色的攻防轉換球員Thompson以及另一位出色的轉換球員Green搭檔。你能想像Thompson加快比賽節奏，並在迫使防守者集中防守籃下後找到跟進的Sheppard嗎?或者Thompson迅速往前衝，利用Sheppard作為提前傳球者的能力，而他在這項特定技能上他是本屆最佳？

Defensively, I also love that Houston will have the kind of length on the
wings and coverage across the court athletically to account for his size and
tendency to gamble by using his elite anticipation to get steals and blocks.
Sheppard will need to improve as a one-on-one defender and get stronger, no
doubt. But the Rockets have potential to play an extremely aggressive defensearound him that forces turnovers and creates those odd-man breaks that make
him so lethal with this group.

在防守方面，我也喜歡休斯頓在側翼的長度和全場的運動能力，這些能彌補他的身材和傾向於賭博的防守，利用他的出色預判來抄球和蓋火鍋。毫無疑問，Sheppard需要提高單防能力並增強體格。但火箭隊有潛力在他周圍打出極具侵略性的防守，迫使對手失誤並創造那些讓他與這組球員一起致命的多打少機會。

If Sheppard is going to work out in the NBA, I think he’s found the perfect
home. He’s entering a young core that needs his shooting ability to space
the court and could also use his ability to connect pieces around him with
quick reads and floor spacing. I think there’s some serious upside in
pairing Sheppard, Thompson and Green together if Green and Sheppard can just
improve a little bit on defense. Their skill sets in the backcourt are
incredibly complementary of one another, and in today’s NBA, you need
multiple playmakers and ballhandlers all on the court at once.

如果Sheppard在NBA要成功，我認為他找到了完美的家。他進入了一個需要他投射能力來拉開場上空間的年輕核心，還能利用他的快速判斷和場上空間連接周圍隊友的能力。我認為如果Green和Sheppard能在防守上稍有提高，將Sheppard、Thompson和Green搭配在一起會有很大的潛力。他們在後場的技能互補性極強，而在今天的NBA，你需要在場上同時擁有多位組織者和持球手。

LeBron James and Austin Reaves (plus the Lakers, but with a caveat)
LeBron James與Austin Reaves(與湖人，但有前提)

Look, this is an easy one. I had Dalton Knecht right around the top 10 on my
board, and he dropped to No. 17. More than that, he fills a significant need
for the Lakers, who were just 28th in the league in 3-point attempt rate thispast season. They finished eighth in 3-point percentage, but I’m a bit
worried that this number was boosted by aberrant shooting seasons by Rui
Hachimura and D’Angelo Russell, along with even a 41 percent year from
LeBron James.

這很容易理解。我把Dalton Knecht排在榜單前十左右，但他掉到了第17順位。更重要的是，他填補了湖人的一個重大需求，因為湖人在過去一個賽季的三分出手率僅排在聯盟第28名。他們在三分命中率則排名第八，但我有點擔心這個數字被八村壘和D'Angelo Russell的異常投籃賽季，以及LeBron James的41%三分命中率所提升。

Now with Knecht, the Lakers have a serious shooter who will need to be
guarded from every inch of the halfcourt area. He’s a tremendous off-ball
scorer who moves exceedingly well away from the ball and flies off of actionsat a high level. Defenses are going to have to pay attention to him, or else
he will get loose and fire from 3. But even if they get a late closeout on
him, Knecht is also awesome at attacking closeouts and driving. There’s more
to his game as a scorer than simply his shooting. He can get into the lane
and finish with touch or vertical pop. He can take midrange jumpers as a
counter. And, yes, he can fire 3s off of real actions.

現在有了Knecht，湖人擁有了一位需要在半場每個角落都被防守的真正射手。他是一個出色的無球得分手，無球跑動得非常好，並且能高效地利用戰術動作。防守者必須時刻注意他，否則他會找到機會投三分。但即使防守者對他進行Close Out，Knecht在應對這種防守時也很出色。他不僅僅是一個射手，他還能突破防守進入禁區，並且能用手感或縱向爆發力完成終結。他可以作為反擊手段投中距離跳投，當然，他也能從真正的戰術中投三分。
That’s going to open up a ton of space for guys James and Austin Reaves as
drivers. They’re going to have so much more room to operate around the
court. Teams won’t be able to sag off of their man quite as easily, for fear
of either of those two players kicking out and hitting Knecht for an easy 3
(which he will make at a good clip). This should be a serious offensive
upgrade over the next couple of years.

這將為James和Austin Reaves等切入者打開大量空間。他們在場上將有更多的操作空間
。防守者不再能輕易放掉他們的對位，因為擔心這兩位球員中的任何一位都會將球傳給
Knecht，讓他輕鬆投三分(他會以高命中率命中)。這應該在未來幾年內成為一個重大的
進攻提升。

The caveat here is on the defensive end. Reaves got much better on the
defensive end as the season went along in 2023-24, but I worry about pairing
the two of them together without an elite perimeter defender between them.
Teams will likely try to attack both of them in space and with matchups that
aren’t ideal for either of them to handle. But the offensive upgrade here is
serious enough to where I like the pick and think this is about as well as
the Lakers could have possibly hoped to have done on draft night.

這裡的前提是防守端。Reaves在2023-24賽季隨著賽季的進行在防守端有了很大進步，但我擔心如果沒有一個精英級的外圍防守者在他們之間搭配，將他們兩個人放在一起會有問題。球隊很可能會嘗試在空間上和不理想的對位中攻擊他們兩個人。但這裡的進攻升級足
夠的話，會使我喜歡這次選擇，並認為這是湖人在本次選秀可能希望做到的最佳結果。

輸家

Detroit Pistons and Cade Cunningham(底特律活塞與Cade Cunningham)

Look, I don’t love doing this. I actually like Ron Holland as a player, and
this isn’t his fault that the Pistons took him. I think he’s going to turn
out to be a useful NBA player in some respect, with some potential for
significant upside. But, man, another wing who can’t shoot is just the last
thing this Pistons team needed unless they’re planning on offloading some of
their other recently-drafted young players.

看，我並不喜歡這樣說。我其實喜歡Ron Holland這個球員，這不是他的錯，活塞選了他。我認為他最終會成為一名有用的NBA球員，甚至可能有很大的潛力。但是，另一個不會投籃的側翼，這正是這支活塞隊最不需要的，除非他們打算放棄一些最近選中的年輕球員。

In an NBA that is more shooting-conscious than ever, the Pistons have draftednon-shooters to be significant parts of their core in the lottery in three
straight drafts. In 2022, they took Jalen Duren. He’s a center, so it’s
more manageable, but the NBA is becoming more five-out on offense than ever.
In 2023, they took Ausar Thompson, who is one of the biggest projects as a
shooter that I can remember among top-10 picks. And this year, it’s Holland,
who made under 25 percent from 3. Even Jaden Ivey, whom they selected at No.
5 in 2022, isn’t really a player who gets aggressively guarded off the ball
like a shooter. Neither does Isaiah Stewart, despite his improvement as a
shooter in his first years.

在如今這個對投籃意識更強的NBA中，活塞連續三年在選秀中選擇了不會投籃的球員作為核心成員。2022年，他們選擇了Jalen Duren。他是一名中鋒，所以這還可以接受，但NBA的進攻正變得越來越偏向Five-Out。在2023年，他們選擇了Ausar Thompson，他是我印象前十順位中投籃最具挑戰性的球員之一。今年，他們選擇了Holland，他的三分命中率不到25%。即使是他們在2022年第五順位選中的Jaden Ivey，也不是那種會被嚴格防守的射手。Isaiah Stewart儘管在投籃方面有所進步，但也不是射手。

The team just is going to have absolutely no space to operate. And while you
don’t have to necessarily play all of these guys at once, in all likelihood
you’re probably going to play at least two or three of them with Cade
Cunningham. That’s the reality of taking guys in the top five when you’ve
been a bad team. You hope that these guys can develop together into a
cohesive unit that eventually turns your organization around.

這支球隊根本沒有任何空間操作。雖然你不必一次性讓這些球員都上場，但在大多數情況下，你可能會至少讓其中兩三個球員和Cade Cunningham一起上場。這是你選擇前五好的球員的現實，尤其是當你是一支糟糕的球隊時。你得希望這些球員能一起發展成為一個合作的整體，最終扭轉你的球隊。

More than anything, I think a pick like this just makes Cunningham’s life
drastically harder. A maestro out of ball screens and a dynamic midrange
pull-up scorer, Cunningham already generally struggles to find any space in
the midrange to make plays, either for himself or his teammates. Holland isn’t going to help that.

最重要的是，我認為這樣的選擇只會使Cunningham的生活變得更加困難。他是一個出色的擋拆球員和動態的中距離跳投得分手，Cunningham已經很難在中距離找到任何空間為自己或隊友創造機會。Holland不會幫助到這點。

The Pistons would likely counter with two points. First, new president of
basketball operations Trajan Langdon just brought renowned shooting coach
Fred Vinson with him from New Orleans. Vinson is regarded as one of the best
shooting coaches in the league, but he’s not a miracle worker. Holland and
Thompson are multi-year projects as shooters, even with both being regarded
as having great work ethics. It’s going to take a lot of time to get them
even to a workable place where they’re making spot-up shots at a high enough
level to where defenders even care about defending them. Second, they’d
point to free agency and the ability to take players on in trades as a way toadd shooting. At the end of the day, these players that they’ve taken in the
lottery are all guys that have serious expectations in one way or another,
and will likely need playing time. There’s only so much help that a
free-agent or trade-acquisition shooter can bring if they’re not stars
coming to join the fray here.

活塞隊可能會反駁兩點。首先，新的籃球運營總裁Trajan Langdon剛剛從鵜鶘帶來了著名的投籃教練Fred Vinson。Vinson被認為是聯盟中最好的投籃教練之一，但他不是奇蹟工作者。即使Holland與Thompson都被認為有很好的工作態度，但作為射手，他們仍然是需要多年的發展。他們要達到一個可以穩定命中定點投籃的水準，還需要很多時間才能讓防守者真正在乎他們的防守。其次，他們指出會在自由球員市場和交易來補充投籃能力。歸根結底，他們在選秀中的這些球員都是有認真期望的，在某種程度上需要上場時間。如果不是明星來加入這裡，自由球員或交易獲得的射手能帶來的幫助有限。

Again, I like Holland as a player. I just don’t get the fit. I would have
traded down, and I think my price-point threshold to trade down and acquire
assets would have been lower than Langdon’s.

再次強調，我喜歡Holland這位球員。我只是覺得他不適合。我會選擇向下交易，我認為我向下交易和獲取資產的價值點會比Langdon低。

Milwaukee Bucks 密爾瓦基公鹿

I think I was probably higher on A.J. Johnson than anyone in the public
sphere rating prospects, and I couldn’t get him any higher than No. 32 on my
board. Even as a fan of Johnson, I think what the Bucks did tonight was
substantially reach on a player that I consider to be a multi-year project
while they’re in the middle of what they hope is a title chase in 2025.

我認為我可能是所有人唯一一個對A.J Johnson評價這麼高的人，但即使如此，我也不能把他排在我的榜單第32名以上。即使我是Johnson的粉絲，我也認為公鹿今晚所做的選擇大大超出了我的預期，他們在2025年希望進行冠軍爭奪時，選擇了一個我認為是需要長期發展的球員。

There were league sources on teams that I spoke with who did not see Johnson
as draftable this year (others, like me, had him around the turn of the firstround). It’s just a remarkable risk to take for a team that has had about as
little success in the NBA Draft as any organization in the league since Jon
Horst took over. The only one that is a bona fide hit is Donte DiVincenzo,
and the organization gave up on him before he came into his own in Golden
State and, especially this past season, in New York. Sam Merrill also
qualifies as a hit, but they also gave up on him before he went on to become
a lethal shooter in Cleveland’s rotation. The only real hit here is A.J.
Green, an undrafted free agent who looks poised to potentially enter their
rotation next season.

我與其他球隊的聯盟消息來源表示，他們不認為Johnson今年有能選(其他人，如我，把他排在首輪邊緣)。對於一支自Jon Horst接手以來在NBA選秀中成功率最低的球隊來說，這是一個重大的風險。唯一一個真正成功的選擇是Donte DiVincenzo，但在他在金州勇士隊成名之前，球隊就放棄了他，尤其是上個賽季還是在紐約。Sam Merrill也算是一個成功的選擇，但他們也在他成為克利夫蘭輪替中的射手之前放棄了他。唯一真正成功的是A.J.
Green，一個落選球員，明年有望進入他們的輪替陣容。

(心得:我都不知道公鹿這麼慘 不過想想Beauchamp也是蠻慘)

Johnson certainly represents a swing for the fences, at least. He’s a
developmental scoring guard who has some serious wiggle and athleticism. Downthe road, I think there are a lot of outcomes where he’s a positive player
in the NBA. But he also was among the least productive players in the NBL
over in Australia this past season. He’s under 170 pounds and nowhere near
playing in the NBA. I had multiple front-office sources from other teams
jokingly speculate to me that the Bucks took Johnson simply so Doc Rivers
wouldn’t have to worry about playing a rookie in his first full season in
charge in Milwaukee.

Johnson至少代表了一個大膽的嘗試。他是一個發展中的得分型後衛，有一些認真的靈活性和運動能力。我認為他未來有很多可能性會成為NBA中的一名正向球員。但他也是本賽季澳洲NBL中表現最差的球員之一。他體重不到170磅，還遠不能在NBA打球。我有多個其他球隊的內線消息來源開玩笑說，公鹿選擇Johnson只是為了讓Doc Rivers在他負責密爾瓦基的第一個完整賽季中不用擔心給新秀上場時間。(老河:是在哭喔)

He’s going to require a lot of time and effort developmentally to reach his
ceiling. Truly, I hope he gets it from the Bucks. I think Johnson can be a
real player. But the Bucks’ track record over the last seven years hasn’t
been particularly strong in that regard. It’s tough to buy into this as a
sharp pick. It feels like the Bucks overthought this, especially when it’s
likely Johnson would have been available at No. 33.

他需要大量的時間和努力來發展才能達到他的上限。我真心希望他能從公鹿隊獲得這些。我認為Johnson可以成為一名真正的球員。但在過去七年裡，公鹿隊在這方面的歷史並不妙。我很難相信這是一個明智的選擇。感覺公鹿隊過度考慮了這一點，尤其是在Johnson可能在第33順位仍然可以選的情況下。

Two other shoulder shrugs

Atlanta Hawks 亞特蘭大老鷹

Any time you take the No. 5 player on my board at No. 1, I’m not going to be
thrilled about it. But Zaccharie Risacher will likely turn into a solid
player in the NBA. He’s a good shooter and has solid defensive instincts in
team settings. I don’t see the upside because I don’t love his on-ball game
— he gets pushed off the ball a bit too easily right now and doesn’t really
have much explosiveness or balance on the ball to be able to withstand
contact (or even project that).

當你在第1順位選擇了我排行榜上的第5名球員，我不會感到興奮。但Zaccherie Risacher很可能會成為一名穩定的NBA球員。他是一個優秀的射手，並且在團隊防守方面有堅實的直覺。我不看好他的上限，因為我不喜歡他的持球技術--他現在太容易被推離球場，並且在持球時沒有太多的爆發力或平衡能力來承受撞擊(或者預測那種情況)。

But Risacher was in my top tier of players this year, and I’m not going to
crush the Hawks for staying within that group and taking a relatively safe
player (comparatively to the others available) that they feel has some room
for growth. I think he fits well with Jalen Johnson on the wing and in the
frontcourt long-term (Johnson the power playmaker with supreme athleticism,
Risacher the skilled shooter and finesse, floor-spacing wing), and will
probably turn out just fine. It’s not a sexy pick, but it’s one I’m OK
with.

但是，Risacher是我今年的頂級球員之一，我不會因為老鷹隊留在這一組球員中並選擇了一個相對安全的球員(相比其他可選球員)而責怪他們。我認為他與Jalen Johnson在側翼和前場的長期配合很好(Johnson是具有超級運動能力的強力控球者，Risacher是技術型射手和技巧型、拉開空間的側翼)，並且可能會表現得很好。這不是一個性感的選擇，但我能接受。

Memphis Grizzlies 曼菲斯灰熊

Typically, when I have a player at No. 17 on my board and they go No. 9, I’m
going to think that a mistake was made somewhere along the way. Indeed, if I
were running the Grizzlies, I would have loved to have moved up and selected
Donovan Clingan at either No. 5 or No. 6. But it takes two to tango, and it
seems like the price points on those two picks were just too high.

正常來說，當我把一個球員排在我的榜單第17位，而他們在第9順位被選中時，我會認為某個環節出了錯。確實，如果我經營灰熊隊，我會喜歡向上交易並在第5或第6順位選擇
Donovan Clingan。但交易需要雙方合意，似乎這兩個順位的價格太高了。

Instead, they went with Zach Edey, the monster 7-foot-4 center from Purdue
who has polarized the basketball world all season. He’s as dominant a force
as we’ve seen in college basketball in the last two decades because of his
height. He rebounds everywhere, improved drastically in drop coverage
throughout his career in ball-screen coverage, and can establish position
against almost anyone. I think the latter point is the key. I think Edey is
so big and so strong that he’s very likely to continue being able to
establish his spot anywhere. That’s going to make him, at the very least, a
productive NBA player. Maybe he does settle in as a backup who is just an
absolute monster to deal with. But I think there’s more room for high-end
outcomes than other people expect, too.

相反，他們選擇了Zach Edey，來自普渡大學的7呎4的中鋒，他整個賽季都在籃球界引起了極大的討論。他是我們在過去二十年中見過的最具統治力的力量，因為他的身高。他在任何地方都能搶到籃板，在職業生涯中在擋拆防守方面有了很大的進步，並且可以在幾乎任何人面前要位。我認為後一點是關鍵。我認為Edey如此高大且強壯，很可能繼續能夠在任何地方建立他的立足點。這至少會使他成為一名高產量的NBA球員。也許他確實只會成為一個替補難以對付的怪物。但我也認為他有更多的天花板的空間，比其他人預期的要多。

He was the next true center on my board after Clingan was selected. And with
the roster crunch that the Grizzlies currently have, I think they were
probably more set on the center position than other teams may have been,
given how essential that need was for them to keep Jaren Jackson Jr. in his
preferred role at power forward.

他是我在Clingan被選中後榜單上的下一個真正中鋒。鑑於灰熊目前的陣容擁擠情況，我認為他們對中鋒位置的需求可能比其他球隊更高，因為這對他們來說把Jaren Jackson Jr.放在他偏好的大前鋒角色至關重要。

So why was I a bit lower at No. 17? I just worry a bit about what Edey will
be able to do in the playoffs. I think teams will likely be pretty aggressivetrying to matchup hunt him in those settings, and probably will have more
success doing that than will allow him to stay on the court for bundles of
minutes. But with Jackson in tow already as well as Brandon Clarke as he getsback into playing shape following his Achilles injury, the team already has
some real frontcourt versatility.

那麼，為什麼我把他排在第17順位如此低呢？我只是有點擔心Edey在季後賽中能做什麼。我認為球隊在這些情況下很可能會非常積極地進行對位狩獵，可能會比讓他長時間上場更成功。但由於灰熊已經有Jackson，Brandon Clarke跟腱受傷後也正在復健，球隊已經擁有了一些真正的前場多樣性。

I’m not saying the pick is a home run. But I think it’s entirely defensible
given Memphis’ situation. They’re an organization that unequivocally
marches to the beat of their own drum come draft time. Sometimes it works
(G.G. Jackson looks like an enormous hit already) and sometimes it doesn’t
(David Roddy was a surprise that is already no longer with the team).

我不是說這個選擇是全壘打。但有鑑於曼菲斯的情況，我認為這是完全可以辯護的。他們是一支在選秀期間明顯按照自己的節奏進行的球隊。有時作用不錯(G.G. Jackson已經看起來是一個巨大的成功)，有時則作用不佳(David Roddy是個驚喜選擇，但已經不在灰熊)。
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