[外絮] Buha湖人(與一點點快艇)消息

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作者:Jovan Buha

Lakers NBA Draft intel: Options for No. 17, and why a trade is increasingly
possible

湖人NBA選秀消息:17順位籤的選項與為何交易可能性逐漸增加

The first domino of the Lakers’ offseason is Thursday’s NBA Draft, when Los
Angeles will have a pivotal opportunity to bolster their roster ahead of freeagency.

The Lakers have the No. 17 and 47 picks, but there has been a growing buzz inrecent days that the Lakers, more likely than not, will trade their pick,
whether it’s moving up, down or out of the draft altogether, multiple team
sources not authorized to speak publicly told The Athletic.

What are their various options? Let’s take a look.

湖人休賽季的第一張骨牌將會是星期四的NBA選秀，湖人將會有一個決定性的機會來在自由市場開市前強化他們的陣容。

湖人現在有17順位與47順位，但根據內線指出近期湖人看起來越來越有可能會交易他們的選秀權，無論是向上換、向下換或是直接離開選秀會。

有甚麼選項呢?我們現在來看看。

1. Keep the No. 17 pick
A few weeks ago, the Lakers were leaning toward keeping their pick. But therehas been an increasing buzz in recent days that the Lakers are now more
likely to deal their pick to leverage a golden opportunity to improve the
roster on draft night, those team sources said.

In the scenario that they stand pat and keep the No. 17 pick, the Lakers’
decade-long track record suggests they’ll find a useful player. The Lakers’
scouting department, spearheaded by assistant general manager and co-owner
Jesse Buss, and vice president of research and development and co-owner Joey
Buss, is one of the best in the league. They have found underrated talent at
all points of the draft.

It’s a delicate balance, but the Lakers can potentially find a player who
can contribute right away, but also develop into a core piece of the future.
They have been consistently linked to five names in recent weeks: Kobe
Bufkin, Dereck Lively II, Jett Howard, Nick Smith Jr. and Noah Clowney. All
five players are projected to go anywhere from the No. 10 pick to the early
20s. Howard, the 6-foot-7 Michigan wing, is projected to go No. 17 in Sam
Vecenie’s latest mock draft for The Athletic.

1.自用

幾周前，湖人傾向把這些選秀權自用。但近期湖人看起來越來越有可能利用交易這些選秀權來強化他們的陣容。

在他們自用的強況下，根據湖人過去10年的選秀史他們一定能找到有用的球員。由助理GM與共同擁有者Jesse Buss與球員發展與研究總監同時也是共同擁有者Joey Buss所領導的球探部門是聯盟中的頂尖。他們從選秀的各個位置都能找到被低估的天賦。

這是一個微妙的平衡，湖人可能可以找到可以立即做出貢獻的球員，但也可以找到未來的核心之一。湖人這幾周常常與五個名字連結在一起:Kobe Bufkin、Dereck Lively II、
Jett Howard、Nick Smith Jr.與Noah Clowney。這五個球員都被預測將會在第10順位置20順位錢辦這個區間挑走。根據Sam Vecenie的模擬選秀，湖人將會在第17順位選入Jett
Howard這名來自密西根大學的6'7"側翼。

2. Combine the pick with salary filler to upgrade the rotation
The Lakers have until June 29 to decide on whether to exercise Malik Beasley’s $16.5 million team option and guarantee Mo Bamba’s $10.3 million
non-guaranteed contract. The primary value in exercising Beasley’s option
and guaranteeing Bamba’s salary, aside from potentially keeping one or both
players, is to trade the two players and their combined $26.8 million salary
for another rotation player or two. Ideally, such a trade would yield a
starter that can seamlessly plug in next to LeBron James, Anthony Davis and
Austin Reaves, a restricted free agent the Lakers are expecting to retain.

(Though there has been no formal announcement yet, the Lakers continue to
operate as if James will be back next season, despite him hinting at the
possibility of retirement in a news conference following the Lakers’
season-ending Game 4 defeat to Denver in the West finals.)

The framework of a deal would likely involve Beasley, Bamba and the No. 17
pick getting exchanged for a starter-level player. The Lakers could also
execute a smaller deal with only one of Beasley or Bamba, plus, potentially,
the pick. Names around the league that have been linked to the Lakers in
recent weeks include Indiana’s Myles Turner and Buddy Hield, Brooklyn’s
Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neale, Toronto’s Gary Trent Jr. and
Washington’s Kristaps Porziis, according to multiple league sources not
authorized to speak publicly.

If the Lakers make a trade on draft night, it’s possibly a signal that they’
re again using “pre-agency” – a term that Lakers vice president of
basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka coined at the trade
deadline — in place of retaining some of their own free agents. The salaries
of James, Davis, whoever they get back from a Beasley and Bamba deal, Jarred
Vanderbilt (the Lakers will guarantee his $4.6 million contract) and Max
Christie add up to roughly $120 million. That’s before factoring in the
likely re-signings of Reaves and Rui Hachimura (projected to be an additional$26 to $30 million in salary for next season), and the potential re-signings
of D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder and Lonnie Walker IV.

In the blink of an eye, the Lakers’ team salary could be pushing past $170
million with just eight or nine players on their roster. Add in at least fourmore players, if not five or six, and the Lakers would cross the dreaded
second apron line (a projected $179.5 million). While the Lakers will likely
have to remain above the luxury tax, if not above the first apron, going
above the second apron has serious roster-building drawbacks on top of the
additional cost per dollar.

One way the Lakers can lower their tax bill is replacing Russell, who is
expected to command a salary in the $20-million-range annually, with Chris
Paul on a veteran’s minimum contract (approximately $3.0 million). But Paul
being traded to the Washington Wizards, in a two-team trade that isn’t
official yet and could expand to a third team, potentially complicates his
future. The Clippers, whether via trade or free agency, are projected as a
slight favorites to land Paul over the Lakers, according to league sources
not authorized to speak publicly.

This is the most likely outcome if the Lakers are committed to going all-in
again, as they did ahead of the 2023 trade deadline.

2.結合選秀權與薪資包來升級陣容

湖人在29號之前要對Malik Beasley 16.5M的球隊選項與Mo Bamba的10.3M非保障合約做出抉擇。執行Beasley的選項並保障Bamba的合約除了可以讓湖人確保1-2名輪替以外，他們還可以將他們兩人合計26.8M的薪資打包來換回1或2名輪替。理想狀況下，這樣的交易將能給湖人帶來1名可以無縫接軌LeBron James、Anthony Davis與Austin Reaves(湖人預計會留下的RFA)的先發球員。

(雖然LBJ曾經在湖人被淘汰的記者會上暗示自己想退休，但是即使沒有正式公布，湖人仍然在操作上預設LBJ將會在下一季回歸。)

Beasley、Bamba與17號籤是其中一個有可能拿來交易先發等級球員的交易框架。或者是使用僅包含這兩個其中之一與可能的籤所組成的包裹來進行更小型的交易。最近被說與湖人有關的球員包含溜馬的Myles Turner與Buddy Hield、籃網的Dorian Finney-Smith與RoyceO'Neale、暴龍的Gary Trent Jr.、巫師的Kristaps Porzingis。

如果湖人在選秀夜上達成交易，Rob Pelinka可能就又用了他的"預先補強(我不確定怎麼翻)"--一個他在交易截止日所發明的概念--來取代保留一些自由球員。James、Davis、從
Bamba與Beasley交易獲得的球員、Jarred Vanderbilt(湖人會保障他的合約)與Max
Christie總計約120M。而這之中不包含預計準備續約的Austin Reaves與八村壘(預計會增加26-30M的薪資)，以及可能續約的D'Angelo Russell、Dennis Schroder和Lonnie WalkerIV。

湖人的薪資將會在隊上僅有8至9名球員的情況下瞬間膨脹至超過170M。而在加入最低限度的4名球員後(甚至5名或6名)湖人將會超過第二層上限(預計為179.5M)。雖然湖人本來就很有可能要付奢侈稅甚至超過第一層硬上限，超出第二層上限將會除了更高的花費以外讓陣容構築變得舉步維艱。

湖人其中一種降低稅單的方式是用Chris Paul來取代D'Angelo Russell，原本預計要20M薪資的Paul將有可能以老將底薪(3M左右)加入湖人。但隨著Paul已經被交易至巫師，根據內線，快艇無論藉由交易或是自由球員簽約都被認為比湖人更有機會拿到Paul(我是看到這句才開始翻的lol 各大資訊蒐集粉專也都只截這句= =)。

如果湖人決定如同23年交易大限那般All-In，這將會是最有可能的結果。

3. Trade back in the draft and collect another asset
The distinction between options 2 and 3 is that the Lakers would retain a
first-round pick in this scenario, though at the likely cost of a worse
rotation player (perhaps Hield or O’Neale from the aforementioned names) or
another draft asset (most likely a second-round pick). The framework of this
deal would look like Beasley, Bamba and/or the No. 17 pick for a first-round
pick in the 20s and another asset (player or pick).

Brooklyn (picks No. 21 and 22) and Indiana (pick No. 26) are two obvious
trading partners with whom the Lakers have previously discussed multiple
deals over the past year or so.

Through the years, the Lakers have identified multiple first-round steals in
multiple drafts. Realistically, whoever the Lakers draft is an unsure bet to
crack the rotation on a contending team. Trading back and recouping assets
could be the most shrewd approach that toes the line between prioritizing thepresent and future.

3.將籤拿回選秀會上交易以換回其它資產

第2與第3選項的差別是湖人將會在這個情形留住首輪籤，雖然這有可能只能補進一名比較差的輪替球員(或許是前面提及的Hield或是O'Neale)與其他選秀資產(二輪籤)。這個架構看起來將會是Beasley、Bamba與/或17順位拿去交換20多順位的選秀權與其他資產(球員或籤)。

籃網(21+22)與溜馬(26)是兩個顯而易見的交易對象且湖人過去幾年已經與他們討論過多筆交易案了。

這幾年，湖人在首輪多次成功的偷到好球員。實際上，無論湖人選了誰他能不能在一隻爭冠球隊中的輪替爭取到一個位置都充滿了不確定性。將選秀權賣掉並換回未來的可能是要在現在與未來取得平衡最明智的方式。

4. Trade up in the draft
Trading up would be a bit of a zag, as the Lakers would be prioritizing the
franchise’s future over the present one-to-two-year window of the
James-Davis core unless they’re incredibly confident that said player can
contribute right away. The framework of this deal would likely be Beasley,
Bamba, the No. 17 pick and another asset — teams will ask for Christie too,
though the Lakers aren’t interested in including him in any deals — in
exchange for a lottery pick and matching salary that a team is trying to shed.

There are multiple reasons why a potential Lakers’ potential trade partner
might be interested in trading down. They could be an over-the-cap team that
views Beasley and/or Bamba as rotation-level players they can’t acquire in
free-agency. They could have a rough long-term cap sheet and view this as a
chance to force the Lakers to take back a contract they are trying to dump
(either a long-term deal or an egregious contract). They could be interested
in one of the Lakers’ future draft assets (a protected first, another
second-round pick, etc.).

The advantage to trading up is locking in one of the prospects that the
Lakers have coveted. Bufkin and Lively are two names to watch for, according
to a team source not authorized to speak publicly about the Lakers’ draft
board.

This is the least likely of the scenarios, but it’s certainly possible.

4.向上換

將選秀權向上換是個比較微妙的選擇，因為湖人將會把重心放在未來--而非James-Davis這1~2年的奪冠窗口(除非他們很有自信能換回可立即做出貢獻的球員)。這筆交易的架構包含了Bamba、Beasley、17號籤與其他資產--可能包含湖人並沒有興趣包含在任何交易內的
Christie--來換回一個樂透籤以及薪資包。

有很多理由可能會讓湖人潛在的交易對象願意向下交換選秀權。他們可能因為薪資爆表而視Bamba/Beasley為他們無法在自由市場取得的戰力。或者是他們的長期薪資表已經卡死，希望能強迫湖人接收他們的爛約(可能長或肥)。他們還可能對湖人未來的資產有興趣(受保護首輪、另一個二輪...etc)。

提升選秀順位對湖人的好處是湖人可以鎖定一名他們想要的潛力球員。內線指出，Lively與Bufkin都是湖人鎖定的目標。

這是最不可能發生的情況，但我們不能排除他的可能性。

5. Draft a player at No. 17 … with plans to trade him later
The Lakers exhibited patience with the Russell Westbrook situation last
season, waiting until they felt they had the perfect deal ahead of the trade
deadline rather than moving him earlier in the season. They could do
something similar with this pick, using the player they draft in a trade
later in the summer or even during the season to upgrade the roster.

The Lakers could technically bring Bamba and Beasley into the season — with
a temporarily expensive cap sheet — and then trade one or both in the middle
of the year as different opportunities arise. They could also re-sign Russelland trade him closer to the trade deadline if a point guard upgrade is
available or there is a lingering effect from Russell’s poor Western
Conference finals performance.

This approach risks the pick’s trade value somewhat diminishing, since rival
teams often prefer to trade for a pick on draft night and even make the
selection themselves rather than taking another team’s choice. But a patient
approach to their roster building could pay dividends once again.

5. 在17順位選一名球員之後再把他交易掉

湖人上一季在Russell Westbrook的情況上展現的耐心，等待他們認為完美的交易案在眼前後才在交易大限出手而非在球季早期就賣掉。他們可能可以對這個選秀權做類似的事情，將選秀權選來的球員在之後夏天甚至是開季後再賣掉來升級陣容。

湖人技術上來說是可以將Bamba與Beasley代進球季的--與暫時膨脹的薪資表--然後在年中等到機會後再交易他們或其中之一。他們也可以簽回Russell然後在大限等到升級控衛的機會或是因為他西區決賽糟糕的表現影響再將他賣掉。

這個方法略有風險並會稍微降低那個選秀權的價值，因為大部分球隊更喜歡在選秀夜交易那些選秀權而非讓其他隊為他們做出選擇。但有耐心且謹慎的方式可能可以讓湖人再次拿到回報。

心得:

總之重點就是
CP3比較可能去快艇
湖人選秀權可能不會自用了

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