[外絮] Sam Vecenie版2024屆百大新秀

https://reurl.cc/Oj97D9

I’ve been waiting to release a 2024 NBA Draft Big Board, largely because
this draft class remains so uncertain. The 2024 draft is seen as the most
questionable one at the top in more than a decade. NBA teams are struggling
to pinpoint the kind of prospect whose value is commensurate with that of a
usual top-five pick.

Right now, I wouldn’t take any player in this class in the top four of the
2022 draft or the top five of the 2023 draft, and I still would not classify
any with a Tier One or Tier Two grade. Because of that, the order these
players will be selected remains extremely up in the air. It’s not an
exaggeration to say any player (outside of one) ranked in the top nine of
this board could end up going No. 1.

我(Vecenie)等了一陣子才發出2024年NBA選秀的百大新秀榜，主要還是因為這屆的不確定性太高了。2024選秀是我十數年來看過有最多疑慮的一屆。NBA球隊還在想辦法找出能與前五順位價值相符的潛力。

現階段而言，我不會將這屆的任何球員與2022的Top 4(Paolo, Chet, JSJ, Ivey)或是2023的Top 5(Wemby, Miller, Scoot, Thompson Bros)相提並論，我也還不會選出Tier 1或2。因此，這些球員被選的順序仍懸而不決。不誇張的說，除了某一名球員以外，前9名的任何一位都有可能會是狀元。

And yet, this class is also an incredibly fun one to break down. It’s an
eye-of-the-beholder draft, and scouts are working hard to determine where
value can be had. There are players not ranked on this board who will emerge
over the course of the season and end up being drafted. This is just a
snapshot of where we’re at a quarter of the way through the regular season
— with myriad potential outcomes still on the board.

My goal right now is to identify guys I think have a good chance to play in
the NBA for a reasonable amount of time. I’m thinking less in terms of
upside, and more in terms of their chances of becoming strong rotation
players. You’ll notice I placed an emphasis on prospects who really know how
to play and have elite feel for the game. Another important factor I value,
even more than in previous years, is each prospect’s ability to impact the
game when they don’t have the ball. Because it’s difficult to pinpoint
exactly which guys have potential to be on-ball creators, placing an emphasison those who are effective without the ball seems like the best way to get
value out of a class that evaluators believe lacks top-end talent.

但是，這一屆分析起來是非常有趣的。這是給旁觀者的選秀，而球探正在努力找出他們的價值。這裡一定會有球員不在這個榜上卻能逐漸爬上來並被選中。這只是例行賽過了1/4之後的一個縮影---而很多潛力還沒展現。

我現在的目標是想要分出一些能有好機會在NBA拿到一定上場時間的球員。我比較不會去思考上限(反觀隔壁棚Givony XD)，我比較多在考慮他們成為強力輪替的機會。你會發現我把重心放在那些有菁英等級的比賽感覺的球員與很會打比賽的球員。另一個我比過去幾年更加重視的因子是潛力球星們手中沒有球而能改變比賽的能力。因為實在是很難準確的總結球員是否有持球創造的能力，將重心放在那些即使手中沒有球卻還能有效打球的球員看起來是能估算出這屆被認為沒有頂級天賦的球員價值。

This is a year when I somewhat regret not working for a team, since I would
only be responsible for having to select a couple of players as opposed to
having something of an opinion on 100.

A few other quick notes:

Eleven of the top 33 players here are either playing for G League Ignite or
overseas. This NCAA class is not particularly strong with NBA prospects rightnow.

This does not look to be a good class of guards, outside of a couple guys I
have near the top. Scouts are hoping players like Providence’s Garwey Dual,
North Carolina’s Elliot Cadeau, Duke’s Jared McCain and Caleb Foster and
others emerge further.

Speaking of freshmen: At this stage of the process, as is true every year, I
do not include freshmen that’d be ranked outside of the top 50. I’m
extremely intrigued with all of those four players above, in addition to guyssuch as Aden Holloway (Auburn), Andrej Stojakovic(Stanford), Jackson
Shelstad (Oregon), Elmarko Jackson (Kansas), Jarin Stevenson (Alabama),
Scotty Middleton (Ohio State), K.J. Lewis (Arizona), JoJo Tugler (Houston),
Malik Mack (Harvard) and plenty others. But I will be more patient with them,given how little time they’ve logged at this level.

今年我有點後悔沒有為一支球隊工作，因為我只負責選擇幾個球員，而不是對 100 名球員發表意見。

一些要注意的事情:

這裡排名前 33 的球員中有 11 人在 G League Ignite 或海外效力。目前 NCAA出產的NBA潛力沒有特別強。

這屆後衛除了一些接近頂端的以外看起來是後衛不太行的一屆。球探正在希望一些像是
Providence的Garwey Dual、北卡的Elliot Cadeau、杜克的Jared McCain和Caleb Foster和一些其他人可以再進一步。

談到大一生:在這個階段，每年都是這樣，我不太把排名前50以外的大一生排進來。除了上述四人以外我也有興趣的還有Aden Holloway(Auburn)、Andrej Stojakovic(Stanford、Peja之子)、Jackson Shelstad (Oregon)、Elmarko Jackson (Kansas)、Jarin Stevenson(Alabama)、Scotty Middleton (Ohio State)、K.J. Lewis (Arizona)、JoJo Tugler
(Houston)、Malik Mack (Harvard)等等等。但我會對他們更有耐心並等他們進入新的層級一段時間以後。

Finally, a few quick thoughts on how I build this thing. First, it does not
take team fit into account. It goes without saying that the Boston Celtics’
board will look different from the Phoenix Suns’ board based on the schemes
they run and the positions in which they need depth. I do give a bit of a
bump to players who I think will be successful in multiple schemes. I also
tend to give a bump to guys who seem to be winning players that can defend
multiple positions, play well within a team defensive concept, knock down
shots and play with great processing speed. The latter quality is the most
important one for non-stars to have for NBA playoff success.

Second, I get input and information from NBA executives, college coaches,
agents, scouts and other evaluators during the process of slotting players.
Sometimes, those exchanges are about a prospect’s background and off-court
habits. Sometimes, they’re about his work ethic. Other times, they’re just
conversations about whether we think a guy can play or who they might compareto in the NBA. These conversations happen daily, but at the end of the day,
this is my ranking. While it is reflective of the general tenor of NBA teams,it’s not a consensus board either.

最後，這裡是一些我怎麼寫出這東西的。第一，我不考慮隊伍適性。波士頓賽爾提克與鳳凰城太陽因為需求與深度的原因會用不同的角度看選秀是廢話。我會給那些可以在多種情況下取得成功的新秀多一些肯定。我也傾向於給那些可以1守到5、高防守適性、投進球與能快速反應的球員更多肯定。後者是非球星球原想在NBA季後賽取得成功最重要的價值。

第二，我從NBA管理層、大學教練、球探與一些其他評價者取得資訊。有時我們會聊球員的背景與場下習慣。有時，我們會聊工作態度。其他時間可能就只是覺得他能不能打或是他可能可以跟NBA的誰做對比。這些對話天天都在發生，但這終究是我的排名。雖然他會反映出一些NBA廣泛的想法，這依然不是個大家有共識的榜單。

1. Isaiah Collier
2. Nikola Topic
3. Alexandre Sarr
4. Zaccharie Risacher
5. Cody Williams
6. Reed Sheppard (PS 最近他的名字被提及的次數真的越來越多)
7. Ja'Kobe Walter
8. Ron Holland
9. Matas Buzelis
10. Ryan Dunn
11. Stephon Castle
12. Oso Ighodaro
13. Donovan Clingan
14. Justin Edwards
15. Robert Dillingham
16. Dalton Knecht
17. Trey Alexander
18. Tyler Smith
19. Kyle Filipowski
20. Kobe Johnson
21. Izan Almansa
22. Bub Carrington
23. Tyrese Proctor
24. Adem Bona
25. Terrence Shannon Jr.
26. Tyler Kolek
27. Kevin McCullar
28. Bobi Klintman
29. Melvin Ajinca
30. Ajay Mitchell
31. Tristan da Silva
32. D.J. Wagner
33. Alex Toohey
34. Tidjane Salaun
35. Zach Edey
36. Kel'el Ware
37. Terrance Arceneaux
38. Desmond Claude
39. Wooga Poplar
40. Jaylon Tyson
41. Hunter Sallis
42. Yves Missi
43. Elliot Cadeau
44. Aaron Bradshaw
45. Milan Momcilovic
46. Trevon Brazile
47. Alex Karaban
48. Baba Miller
49. Aday Mara
50. Kylan Boswell
51. P.J. Hall
52. Riley Kugel
53. Ariel Hukporti
54. Ryan Kalkbrenner
55. Harrison Ingram
56. Baylor Scheierman
57. Juan Nunez
58. Tyon Grant-Foster

(今年因為一樣只有58順位我就先列到這了 The Athletics的表格很難複製= =)

下面的球探報告看我心情再看要不要翻XD

Vecenie版本的跟Givony版本的除了狀元以外差距超級大也足見這次選秀有多混沌

Vecenie版本的基本上G League Ignite因為那隊真的打太爛全部都往後噴了lol

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