Re: [新聞] 彭博：拜登推下個經濟計畫 將搭配1993年

※ 引述《mywade (mywade)》之銘言：
: ※ 引述《CavendishJr (梅西♡)》之銘言：
: : 原文標題：彭博：拜登推下個經濟計畫 將搭配1993年來最大加稅案
: : (請勿刪減原文標題)
: : 原文連結：
: : https://bit.ly/3tkWi62

有點震撼，所以去找英文確認一下
https://reurl.cc/3NMkAl

Biden Eyes First Major Tax Hike Since 1993 in Next Economic Plan

(Bloomberg) — President Joe Biden is planning the first major federal tax
hike since 1993 to help pay for the long-term economic program designed as a
follow-up to his pandemic-relief bill, according to people familiar with the
matter.

Unlike the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 stimulus act, the next initiative, which isexpected to be even bigger, won’t rely just on government debt as a funding
source. While it’s been increasingly clear that tax hikes will be a
component — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said at least part of the
next bill will have to be paid for, and pointed to higher rates — key
advisers are now making preparations for a package of measures.

With each tax break and credit having its own lobbying constituency to back
it, tinkering with rates is fraught with political risk. That helps explain
why tax hikes since Bill Clinton’s signature 1993 overhaul stands out from
the modest modifications done since.

For the Biden administration, the planned changes are an opportunity not justto fund key initiatives like infrastructure, climate and expanded help for
poorer Americans, but also to address what Democrats argue are inequities in
the tax system itself. The plan will test both Biden’s capacity to woo
Republicans and Democrats’ ability to remain unified.

“His whole outlook has always been that Americans believe tax policy needs
to be fair, and he has viewed all of his policy options through that lens,”
said Sarah Bianchi, head of U.S. public policy at Evercore ISI and a former
economic aide to Biden. “That is why the focus is on addressing the unequal
treatment between work and wealth.”

While the White House has rejected an outright wealth tax, as proposed by
progressive Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, the administration’s
current thinking does target the wealthy.

The White House is expected to propose a suite of tax increases, mostly
mirroring Biden’s 2020 campaign proposals, according to four people familiar
with the discussions.

The tax hikes included in any broader infrastructure and jobs package are
likely to include repealing portions of President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax
law that benefit corporations and wealthy individuals, as well as making
other changes to make the tax code more progressive, said the people familiarwith the plan.

The following are among proposals currently planned or under consideration,
according to the people, who asked not to be named as the discussions are
private:

Raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%Paring back tax preferences forso-called pass-through businesses, such as limited-liability companies or
partnershipsRaising the income tax rate on individuals earning more than
$400,000Expanding the estate tax’s reachA higher capital-gains tax rate for
individuals earning at least $1 million annually. (Biden on the campaign
trail proposed applying income-tax rates, which would be higher)

An independent analysis of the Biden campaign tax plan done by the Tax PolicyCenter estimated it would raise $2.1 trillion over a decade, though the
administration’s plan is likely to be smaller. Bianchi earlier this month
wrote that congressional Democrats might agree to $500 billion.

The overall program has yet to be unveiled, with analysts penciling in $2
trillion to $4 trillion. No date has yet been set for an announcement, thoughthe White House said the plan would follow the signing of the Covid-19 reliefbill.

An outstanding question for Democrats is which parts of the package need to
be funded, amid debate over whether infrastructure ultimately pays for itself— especially given current borrowing costs, which remain historically low.
Efforts to make the expanded child tax credit in the pandemic-aid bill
permanent — something with a price tag estimated at more than $1 trillion
over a decade — could be harder to sell if pitched as entirely debt-financed.What Bloomberg’s Economists Say…

“The next major legislative initiative, infrastructure investment, could
provide the sort of durable economic gains that not only support higher pay,
but promote diffusion of those gains across demographic lines and political
persuasions.”

–Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger, U.S. economists

For the full report, click here
Democrats would need at least 10 Republicans to back the bill to move it
under regular Senate rules. But GOP members are signaling they are prepared
to fight.

“We’ll have a big robust discussion about the appropriateness of a big tax
increase,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said last month,
predicting Democrats would pursue a reconciliation bill that forgoes the GOP
and would aim for a corporate tax even higher than 28%.

Kevin Brady, the top Republican on the House Ways & Means Committee, said, “
There seems to a be a real drive to tax investment of capital gains at
marginal income rates,” and called that a “terrible economic mistake.”

While about 18% of the George W. Bush administration’s tax cuts were allowed
to expire in a 2013 deal, and other legislation has seen some increases in
levies, 1993 marks the last comprehensive set of increases, experts say. Thatbill passed on a two-vote margin in the House and required the vice presidentto break a tie in the Senate.

“I don’t think it is an understatement to say the current partisan
environment is more severe than 1993” said Ken Kies, managing director of
the Federal Policy Group, a former chief of staff of the congressional Joint
Committee on Taxation. “So you can draw your own conclusions” about
prospects for a deal this year, he said.

Still, there could be some tax initiatives Republicans could get behind. One
is a shift from a gasoline tax to a vehicle-miles-traveled fee to help fund
highway projects.

Read More: By-the-Mile Vehicle Tax to Help Fund Infrastructure Gains Steam
Another is more money for Internal Revenue Service enforcement — a way to
boost revenue without raising rates. Estimates have found that for every
additional $1 spent on IRS audits, the agency brings in an additional $3 to
$5.

Democrats are also looking to revise tax laws that they say don’t do enough
to stop U.S. companies from shifting jobs and profits offshore as another wayto raise revenue, one aide said. Republicans could potentially support
incentives, though it’s unclear whether they’d back penalties.

White House officials including deputy director of the National Economic
Council, David Kamin — who wrote a 2019 paper on “Taxing the Rich” — are
in the process of fleshing out the Biden tax plans.
As for timing, if passed, tax measures would likely take effect in 2022 —

though some lawmakers and Biden supporters outside the administration have
argued for holding off while unemployment remains high due to the pandemic.
Lawmakers have their own ideas for tax reforms. Senate Finance Committee

Chairman Ron Wyden wants to consolidate energy tax breaks and require
investors to pay taxes regularly on their investments including stocks and
bonds that have unrealized gains.

“A nurse pays taxes with every single paycheck. A billionaire in an affluent
suburb on the other hand can defer paying taxes month after month to the
point where their paying taxes is pretty much optional,” Wyden told
Bloomberg in an interview. “I don’t think that’s right.”

Warren has pitched a wealth tax, while House Financial Services Committee
Chair Maxine Waters has said she would like to consider a
financial-transaction tax.

Democratic strategists see the next package as effectively the last chance toreshape the U.S. economy on a grand scale before lawmakers turn to the 2022
mid-term campaign.

“Normally, the party in power gets one or two shots to do major legislative
packages,” said Chuck Marr, senior director of Federal Tax Policy at the
left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “This is the next shot.
”
c 2021 Bloomberg L.P.

機翻如下：

（彭博社）—知情人士說，總統拜登（Joe Biden）計劃自1993年以來首次進行重大聯邦
加稅，以幫助支付長期經濟計劃，該計劃是他的武漢肺炎救濟法案的後續行動。

與1.9兆美元的Covid-19刺激法案不同，下一個計劃預計會更大，它不會僅僅依靠政府債務作為資金來源。 儘管越來越明顯的是加稅將是其中的一個組成部分 — 財政部長珍妮
特‧耶倫（Janet Yellen）表示，至少下一部分法案將必須支付，並指出了更高的稅率
— 主要顧問現在正在為整體配套措施做準備 。

每次稅收減免和信貸都有自己的遊說團體來支持它，因此，對利率進行修補會充滿政治風險。 這有助於解釋為什麼自從比爾‧克林頓（Bill Clinton）於1993年進行大刀闊斧的
改革以來不曾有過的加稅措施，在此後進行的適度修改的諸多政策選項中脫穎而出。

對於拜登政府而言，計劃中的變革不僅是為關鍵計劃（如基礎設施，氣候和對貧困美國人的擴大援助）提供資金的機會，而且還可以解決民主黨人認為稅制本身存在的不公平現象。 該計劃將測試拜登吸引共和黨的能力和民主黨黨內保持團結的能力。

ISI Evercore ISI美國公共政策負責人，拜登前經濟助手莎拉‧比安奇（Sarah Bianchi
）表示：“他的整體前景一直是，美國人認為稅收政策應該是公平的，他已經從那個角度審視了他的所有政策選擇。” 。 “這就是為什麼重點放在解決工作與財富之間的不平等
待遇上的原因。”

正如進步民主黨參議員伊麗莎白‧沃倫（Elizabeth Warren）提議的那樣，白宮拒絕了徹底的財富稅，但政府目前的想法確實針對富人。

據四位知情人士透露，預計白宮將提議一系列增稅措施，主要是參酌了拜登（Biden）的2020年競選方案。

知情人士說，任何更廣泛的基礎設施和就業計劃中所包含的加稅措施，可能包括廢除唐納德‧川普總統2017年稅法中使公司和富人受益的部分，以及進行其他修改以使稅法更具進步性的計劃。

知情人士說，以下是目前正在計劃或正在考慮的提案，由於不公開討論，他們不願透露姓名：

1.將公司稅率從21％提高到28％對所謂的轉嫁業務（例如有限責任公司或合夥企業）
2.減少稅收優惠將年收入超過40萬美元的個人的所得稅率提高擴大遺產稅的覆蓋面對年
收入至少100萬美元的個人提高稅率。 （競選活動中的拜登建議採用所得稅率，該稅率更高）

稅收政策中心對拜登競選稅收計劃進行的獨立分析估計，儘管政府的計劃可能會更小，但它將在十年內籌集2.1兆美元。比安奇本月早些時候寫道，國會民主黨可能會同意5000億美元。

總體計劃尚未揭曉，分析師的預估數字在2兆至4兆美元之間。儘管白宮表示該計劃將在
Covid-19救濟法案簽署之後進行，但尚未宣布宣布的日期。

對於民主黨而言，一個懸而未決的問題是，在有關基礎設施是否最終能夠收回成本的辯論中，特別是考慮到目前的借貸成本仍處於歷史低位的辯論中，該計劃的哪些部分需要獲得資金。如果要完全依靠債務融資，很難在武漢肺炎疾病援助法案中永久地擴大兒童稅收抵免的努力（十年國債標價估計超過1兆美元），可能會更難出售。

彭博社的經濟學家怎麼說…

“下一個主要的立法舉措是基礎設施投資，可以提供持久的經濟收益，不僅支持更高的薪水，而且可以促進這些收益在人口統計和政治說服力之間的擴散。”

-美國經濟學家安德魯‧休斯比（Andrew Husby）和伊麗莎‧溫格（Eliza Winger）

民主黨將需要至少10名共和黨人才能支持該法案，以使其在參議院的常規規則下生效。但是共和黨成員表示他們準備戰鬥。

參議院少數黨領袖米奇‧麥康奈爾（Mitch McConnell）上個月表示：“就大幅增加稅收
的適當性，我們將進行激烈的討論。”

眾議院籌款委員會最高的共和黨人凱文‧布雷迪（Kevin Brady）表示：“似乎確實在以
邊際收益率對資本利得投資的稅收徵稅，”他稱這是“嚴重的經濟錯誤”。

專家說，雖然喬治‧布希政府的減稅計劃在2013年達成約18％的減免期限，而其他立法也增加了稅率，但1993年是最後一次全面的加稅。該法案在眾議院以高出兩票通過，並要求副總統在參議院中打破平局。

聯邦政策小組常務董事，國會稅收聯合委員會前任參謀長肯‧凱斯說：“我認為現在的政
黨環境比1993年更為嚴峻，這並不是輕描淡寫。”他說：“因此，您可以對今年的交易前
景得出自己的結論”。

儘管如此，共和黨仍可能會採取一些稅收措施。一種是將汽油稅改為車輛行駛里程費，以幫助資助高速公路項目。

另一個是為執行國稅局增加的資金 - 一種在不提高利率的情況下增加收入的方法。估計發現，在IRS審計上每多花1美元，該機構就會多賺3到5美元。

一位助手說，民主黨人也在尋求修改稅法，他們說這樣做不足以阻止美國公司將工作和利潤轉移到海外，這是增加收入的另一種方式。共和黨人可能會支持獎勵措施，儘管目前尚不清楚他們是否會支持罰款。

白宮官員，包括國家經濟委員會副主任戴維‧卡明（David Kamin）-正在撰寫拜登（
Biden）稅收計劃。

至於時間安排，如果獲得通過，稅收措施可能會在2022年生效 - 儘管政府之外的一些立法者和拜登的支持者爭辯說，在武漢肺炎導致失業率居高不下的同時，應該暫緩執行。

議員們對稅收改革有自己的想法。參議院財政委員會主席羅恩‧懷登（Ron Wyden）希望
鞏固能源稅減免政策，並要求投資者定期對其投資（包括未實現收益的股票和債券）徵稅。

“護士每張薪水條都交稅。”另一方面，富裕郊區的億萬富翁卻可以將納稅逐月推遲到幾
乎可以選擇的程度，”懷登在接受彭博社採訪時說。 “我認為那是不對的。”

沃倫提出了一項財產稅，而眾議院金融服務委員會主席馬克西‧沃特斯（Maxine Waters
）說，她想考慮一項金融交易稅。

民主黨政策人士們認為，下一個配套計劃實際上是在國會議員轉向2022年期中選舉之前大規模重塑美國經濟的最後機會。

“通常情況下，執政黨可以有一兩次機會來制定主要的立法方案，”左傾的預算與政策重
點中心，聯邦稅收政策機構的高級主管查克‧馬爾（Chuck Marr）說。 “這是下一個機
會。”

c 2021彭博L.P.

心得：

0.調利率會得罪太多政治遊說團體，所以加稅。

1.關鍵字，2022，美國期中選舉前。

2.共和黨看起來很不同意。

3.算是放風向球試探，推測最差也要美國就業率回升才有可能推行。

4.個人認為就業率真正回溫最快也是2022了。到時候也要期中選舉了。

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