Fw: [假設] 李牧沒被趙王賜死，繼續領導趙軍抗秦

※ [本文轉錄自 DummyHistory 看板 #1ZOFaFPm ]

作者: TKB5566 (台灣知識庫5566) 看板: DummyHistory
標題: [假設] 李牧沒被趙王賜死，繼續領導趙軍抗秦
時間: Tue Nov 1 18:46:37 2022

李牧對秦軍的戰績，是大家有目共睹的：

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qin%27s_wars_of_unification

In 233 BC, Huan Yi's army crossed Mount Taihang and conquered the Zhao
territories of Chili (赤麗) and Yi'an (宜安), both located southeast of
present-day Shijiazhuang, Hebei.
the Qin army under Huan Yi engaged the Zhao army commanded by General Li Mu
at the Battle of Fei in which the Qin sustained a massive defeat and nearly
lost all their forces.

In 232 BC, the Qin forces split into two groups to attack Fanwu (番吾;
present-day Lingshou County, Hebei) and Langmeng (狼孟; present-day Yangqu
County, Shanxi), but were defeated again by the Zhao army led by Li Mu.

李牧對秦軍二戰二勝，而肥之戰的經過如下：

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fei_(233_BCE)

Li Mu felt that the Qin army's morale was high after its earlier victories,
so it would be unwise for Zhao to attack Qin then. He ordered his troops to
strengthen their fortifications and defences while waiting for an opportunityto launch an counteroffensive.

As the bulk of the Qin army had left to attack Fei, the Qin camp was poorly
defended so Li Mu seized the opportunity to order his troops to launch an
offensive on the Qin camp. The Zhao forces scored a major victory in the
ensuing battle and captured several prisoners-of-war and supplies.

As Li Mu predicted that Huan Yi would retreat from Fei to save the camp,
he ordered his men to lay an ambush on Huan Yi's retreat route. Huan Yi's
retreating troops fell into the ambush.

Qin sustained over 100,000 casualties in the battle

到了秦滅趙之戰，李牧一樣打得有聲有色：

In 229 BC, Qin took advantage of the situation to launch a pincer attack
from the north and south on Handan, the Zhao capital.

On the Zhao side,
Li Mu and Sima Shang (司馬尚) were put in command of the Zhao army.

Li Mu ordered his troops to build defensive structures and avoid direct
confrontation with the enemy. The Qin forces were unable to advance further
and both sides reached a stalemate.

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然後李牧就被趙王賜死了。那如果李牧沒被趙王賜死，繼續領導趙軍抗秦，李牧繼續

使用其擅長的戰術，用堅強防守消耗敵軍、誘敵深入後集中兵力進行反擊與包抄。

不計較一城一地得失。這樣的話，雖然在秦軍重壓下，邯鄲應該還是會淪陷，

但史實上趙國公子逃往北方建立代國，聯合燕軍繼續抗秦。直到西元前222年才滅亡。

所以其實即使邯鄲淪陷了，趙軍還是可以以趙國剩餘領土與燕國領土作為縱深，

繼續與秦軍周旋。

所以如趙王不殺李牧，且仿照趙國公子的作法，遷都北方，軍事組織上讓趙軍聯合燕軍。

然後李牧同時指揮趙軍與燕軍，並結合燕國資源與趙國胡服騎射的體制，訓練動員燕軍。

讓燕國能增生更多兵力，而非史實上，僅僅只有10萬人：

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%A7%A6%E6%BB%85%E7%87%95%E4%B9%8B%E6%88%B0

趙國是否還有轉圜餘地？？還是說即使燕國也跟趙國一樣胡服騎射大量動員，國力體量上

還是差秦國太多，所以即使趙王不殺李牧並採取這個戰略，趙國一樣要滅亡？？

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另外就是，當邯鄲被秦軍包圍時，趙王怎麼沒有像三十年前白起率秦軍包圍邯鄲時那樣，

積極遣使各國支援？？當年白起攻邯鄲，就是因各國援軍及時趕到而失敗。

那三十年後秦軍又包圍邯鄲了，這次怎麼就沒有各國援軍支援趙國？？

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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/DummyHistory/M.1667299599.A.670

所以魏跟齊是不用指望了，只剩燕跟楚。如果趙國想向楚國遣使求援，使者勢必得經過

魏、齊這兩個秦國盟友的地面，這樣趙聯合楚的情報就可能被洩漏給秦國。

故風險太大。所以我想趙國唯一可行的做法就是聯合燕國了。

若趙燕聯合並採用胡服騎射、舉國動員體制，其加總體量就算還是不如秦軍，

至少應該也不會輸給楚軍。這樣秦軍就相當於同時面對兩個楚國南北夾擊，

這樣的話秦軍要統一天下，還是未定之天。
※ 編輯: TKB5566 (1.167.40.0 臺灣), 11/01/2022 19:16:19

所以即使趙燕聯合，兩國領導共同組成一個總指揮部，然後兩國軍隊整合成一支聯軍，

實施胡服騎射、大量動員，統一由李牧指揮。是說燕國北方也有遊牧民族，所以應當也

具有實施胡服騎射的條件。且燕軍也曾在樂毅領導下，有過攻占齊國七十座城池的戰績。

所以燕軍其實只要有適當的訓練與領導的話，戰力並不弱。

這樣重新組織出一支雖不如秦軍規模，但至少有楚軍規模的部隊。

北方有趙燕聯合、南方有楚國。如果秦軍攻楚國，李牧率領的趙燕聯軍就襲擊秦軍後方，

而秦軍回頭打趙燕聯軍，項燕率領的楚軍就反過來偷襲秦軍後方。讓秦軍疲於奔命。

這樣的戰略

類似國共內戰，東北戰場的共軍那樣，國軍攻擊南滿共軍，北滿共軍就出擊國軍，

國軍回過頭來打北滿，南滿共軍就回頭襲擊國軍，這樣子去消耗東北國軍。

後來東北共軍確實也殲滅了東北國軍。

所以這種戰略

其實共軍也示範過了，但要求戰國時期的國家做到這種程度，難度還是太高？
※ 編輯: TKB5566 (111.241.182.170 臺灣), 11/03/2022 14:28:46

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ※ 轉錄者: TKB5566 (111.241.182.170 臺灣), 11/03/2022 14:29:08