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Taiwan Political Upstart Threatens to Eclipse KMT as No. 2 Party
台灣新政黨威脅國民黨第二大黨地位
-Survey shows Taiwan People’s Party with 22.2% support
民眾黨獲22.2%支持
-Results show faltering support ahead of January 2024 election
結果顯示2024/1大選前民意有所動搖

By Cindy Wang and Samson Ellis
(Bloomberg) --

The Kuomintang, the political party that ruled China and then Taiwan for muchof the 20th Century, is at risk of losing its position as the island’s main opposition as a relative newcomer cements its position as the second most popular force in domestic politics, a new poll shows.
20世紀長期統治台灣的國民黨可能失去目前第二大黨地位

The Taiwan People’s Party, established in 2019, has an approval rating of 22.2% compared to 20.4% support for the KMT, traditionally one of Taiwan’s biggest parties, according to a poll released Thursday by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party received an approval rating of 24.6%.

This is the first time that three political parties in Taiwan have received approval ratings of over 20%, the foundation said, calling it a potential “super bombshell” for the 2024 elections.
基金會指出這是第一次三個黨都取得20%以上支持率
The survey was conducted June 12-13 and has a margin of error of about three percentage points.

Taiwanese voters will choose their next president and a cohort of lawmakers in January, with the results helping set the course for both cross-strait and US-China relations for years to come.

Why Taiwan’s 2024 Election Matters From China to US: QuickTake

The election is shaping up to be a competitive three-way race between the ruling DPP, which is determined to maintain Taiwan’s effective political independence; the KMT, which seeks closer ties with China; and the TPP, which advocates for dialogue with China while presenting a middle-of-the-road alternative to the other two parties.
DPP決心台獨 KMT要加強中國聯繫 民眾黨主張跟中國對話 同時尋求中間路線
The polling results represent a “severe crisis” for the KMT, which has lost
almost 3 million supporters over the past four years due to factional infighting, according to the foundation.
民調結果是國民黨嚴重危機，基金會指出過去四年該黨失去300萬支持者 主因派系內鬥
But the outcome is by no means a win for the DPP. The numbers are “a serious
warning” to President Tsai Ing-wen’s ruling party, showing it has lost the s
upport of over 3 millions voters since the last presidential election in 2020, the foundation said in a statement.
基金會指出民進黨也不應高興，因為2020年以後該黨同樣流失300萬支持者
While the poll is sobering news for the KMT, for now the party remains a moreinfluential force in Taiwan’s politics than the TPP. The KMT governs 14 out of Taiwan’s 22 counties and municipalities. It has 37 lawmakers in the 113-seat legislature, compared to five for the TPP.
KMT在政壇影響力仍高於民眾黨 國民黨拿下14縣市首長（共22縣市） 且有37國會席次（民眾黨5，共113席）
Thursday’s results showed the TPP’s highest support rating since its foundin
g four years ago, the foundation said, highlighting that Taiwanese voters arekeen for a “meaningful third choice” other than the two traditionally larges
t parties.
本次民調為民眾黨成立後最高支持率
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