[閒聊] 從春訓熱身賽分析觀察到的新規則5大影響

New rules: 5 takeaways from Spring Training

https://www.mlb.com/news/impact-of-new-rules-during-spring-training-2023

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統計圖表數據資料分析
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從春訓熱身賽
分析觀察到的
新規則5大影響、現象
1.投球計時器有實益
2.違例次數逐漸減少
3.盜壘嘗試次數增加
4.滾地球安打數增加
5.舊規則感覺太過時

大家可以來聊聊
你對新規則的想法及意見

We know not to take Spring Training
numbers all that seriously.
The Cardinals, for instance,
will not be staging a parade
to celebrate having the best record
of the exhibition season.

But the numbers from the Grapefruit
and Cactus Leagues are quite a bit
more important when they relate to
the major rule changes MLB has adopted
for the 2023 season.
Like your favorite player’s exhibition
batting average,
these numbers are not ironclad.
But they do give us a window into
how the pitch timer,
defensive shift restrictions
and bigger bases are going to impact
Major League play this year.

‧ All your questions about the
new rules, answered

So let’s run through five things we saw
with regard to the rules
in the spring season
and the numbers behind them.

1. We saw -- again --
that the pitch timer works.

The pitch timer was created to
cure the problem of dead time,
and, in the exhibition season --
as in last year’s Minor League trial --
it did precisely that.

Compared to Spring Training games
last year,
the average nine-inning game time
was cut by 26 minutes
from both 2022 and '21.

https://i.imgur.com/qdVNt48.jpeg

Note: The average nine-inning game time
in the 2022 regular season was 3:03

The pitch timer acted much the same way
it did in MiLB last year,
when the average nine-inning game time
was reduced by 25 minutes.

‧ MLB adds time restrictions
on replay review

And as you can see,
that game-time reduction did not mean
“less baseball.”
The run-scoring environment
was in line with recent springs,
which is especially notable given
how many star hitters left Spring Training
for a couple of weeks to compete in
the World Baseball Classic.
What was reduced was non-baseball
-- pitchers pacing around the mound,
batters adjusting their gloves,
people scratching themselves, etc.

‧ 8 changes fans need to know
for the '23 season

“[The pitch timer] is going to be a
good thing for everybody,”
Yankees slugger Aaron Judge said.
“When they brought the shot clock
into basketball all those years ago,
they had to learn to adjust.
You couldn’t just sit around and dribble
and run motion for five minutes.”

Good job, pitch timer.
You’re on the Opening Day roster, pal.

2. We saw a reduction in violations
as games progressed.

In the Minor Leagues last year,
games were played without the
pitch timer for the first two weeks
of the regular season.
Then, the timer arrived, and everybody
-- including the umpires --
adjusted on the fly.
At season’s end, 90 percent of
MiLB players polled said
it took them “about a month”
to make that adjustment.
Pitch-timer infractions went from
1.73 per game in the first week
with the clocks to 0.53 per game
by the sixth week.

MLB decided to use Spring Training --
not the regular season --
for that adjustment period this year.
The umpires were also instructed to be
strict with their enforcement of the
new rules from Day 1.
And sure enough,
on the first full day of spring games,
we had a game end
on an automatic strike
with the bases loaded, two out
and the count full in the bottom of the ninth.

Strict enforcement, indeed.

But while that enforcement contributed to
a higher rate of infractions than
what we saw in the first month of
Minor League play from 2022,
we did generally see violations trend down.

https://i.imgur.com/DHMQsxo.jpeg

Note: Weeks end with games played
on Sundays

3. We saw WAY more stolen-base activity.

It was a given that runners would be
more daring on the basepaths
now that pitcher pickoffs are limited
and the bases are a little bit bigger.
But stolen-base attempts per game
actually went up more than 40 percent:

https://i.imgur.com/vyZr1dz.jpeg

To put that in perspective, if we were to
see the same percentage
increase in attempts in the regular season,
it would bring about the highest number
of attempts since 1999.

‧ The bases are bigger,
but 90 feet is the same

It’s doubtful the increase will be quite
as pronounced in the regular season.
But the Minor Leagues saw a
26% jump in stolen-base attempts
as a result of the new rules,
and this spring has given us reason
to suspect we could be in
for a similar jump in MLB.

"I think it's definitely a friendlier
base-stealing environment
with the game now,"
Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich said.

4. We saw a lot more ground balls go for hits.

The primary point of the
defensive shift restrictions
is to provide more traditional outcomes
on balls in play.
No more second basemen stationed
in right field, in perfect position to scoop up
a scorching ground ball that, for roughly
100 years of baseball history,
would have been a single.

How much the infield shift ban
will impact the batting average bottom line
in the Major League season
remains to be seen
(the Minor League data
wasn’t really conclusive).
But the spring numbers were eye-catching:

https://i.imgur.com/4gmxg5q.jpeg

As you can see,
the increase was particularly pronounced
on pulled ground balls.
The overall batting average on balls
in play league-wide was .317,
up from .311 in Spring Training last year.
The league-wide BABIP in the
2022 regular season was just .290.

“I’ve sort of turned the corner
on the shift [limits],”
Rockies manager Bud Black said.
“There’s a part of me that says,
from a strategic standpoint,
‘Why should we be told
how to play defense?’
But the NBA made changes, right?
… It will create what fans want.
It’s more defensive plays based on
not having a bunch of guys in one spot
where a guy hits the ball.
So I’m all right with the [limits].”

Another effect of the shift restrictions
is that having rangy middle infielders
matters again.

“I’m all for being in a position where I can
be athletic and move a little bit more
and try to make more defensive plays,”
Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor said.
“I think this is going to put us in a
better position to make good plays
and crazy plays.”

5. We saw “old rules” that felt … old.

The World Baseball Classic
was awesome.
The Shohei Ohtani-Mike Trout ending
could not have been scripted much better.

But it took a while to get to that ending.

For those locked into the exhibition action,
it was amazing how different the pacing
of the Classic games --
played without the pitch timer
and the other new rules -- felt.

Despite more runs and batters per game,
the spring tilts were much more crisp:

https://i.imgur.com/J5yHKnS.jpeg

Obviously, the Classic games were of
much higher stakes and importance,
so this is a bit of
an apples-to-oranges comparison.
But to those within the sport,
the difference between the two
environments was jarring.

“I left the WBC after the fifth because
I was tired and it was
two and a half hours in,
and that's usually
when the game's over here,”
Marlins manager Skip Schumaker
said after attending
Venezuela vs. Puerto Rico.
“So I didn't realize it until I actually went to
a game after the pitch clock
how long those games are.
Didn't know if I'd like [the timer] or not.
But I actually really like it. I'm a fan of it.”

--

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 182.233.7.224 (臺灣)

https://www.ptt.cc/MLB/E.TCdJbgPRZcF0

https://i.imgur.com/4gmxg5q.jpeg

pulled拉 OPPO推(opposition field)

※ 編輯: Lb1916 (182.233.7.224 臺灣), 03/30/2023 12:44:40