Re: [新聞] 提早28年!英氣象局預測2050年的高溫 本
推特原出處
https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1547957062000267267
在這裡需要加上他本人有做補充的推文
To clarify: I don't think you can interpret this as climate change occurring
'faster than anticipated'. Climate models have shown that 40C is possible in
the UK in the current climate, just very rare. My point is that what is
coming on Tuesday gives an insight into the future.
釐清一下:我不認為你可以解讀這個成氣候變遷發生的比預期快.
氣候模型已展現攝氏40度在英國現在的氣候是有可能的,只是很罕見
我的觀點是在將來週二發生的事讓我們對未來有了深入的了解。
In the present climate, 40C represents a new extreme, which is becoming more
likely due to climate change
(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16834-0).
Both the 2050 and 2022 forecasts are showing extreme events, but 40C in the
2050 forecast is less extreme than the 40C in 2022.
在現在的氣候中攝氏40度是新極端值,這可能是由於氣候變化造成的
(引用2020論文) 20500跟2022預報有展示極端事件,
但是攝氏40度在2050預測裡在不如 2022 年的攝氏40度極端
在回應的推文裡, Chris Parker引用了他在2021的推文
https://twitter.com/HyperHydr0/status/1418564916026519558
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6-9uhdX0AE_p6h.png
不過類似的事以前有人做過
有位法國氣象主播Evelyne Dhéliat在2014年有播報2050年八月十八日法國本土氣溫
以提醒人們注意氣候變化現實的運動中的一部分
https://youtu.be/AGXcwQRgayU
--
氣象上對短期天氣做的預測資料,可以跟模擬氣候變遷
的統計資料混唯一談嗎?可是我看很多人常做這類關聯
性的想定並作為報導,不知道這樣是好事還是壞事?
很好的補充
2050年人口密集區會不會出現攝氏70~80度的超級熱
浪 然後夏天人類就必須在室內隔離好 白天出門穿全套
絕熱服 晚上才能自由出門?
恐熱症才是問題吧 肥宅恐熱 就算溫度不超過28度還
是叫
至於70-80度 我倒不認為會到這麼高
不用到70度,只要露點溫度在30度以上,在太陽下幾分
鐘就可能熱衰竭
好奇提問一下,以前恐龍時代二氧化碳濃度比現在爆高
所以那個時代的溫度也是比現代熱非常多嗎?還是有
什麼調節(海洋?)所以其實沒有因此變得很高溫
理論上如果恐龍是變溫動物,那就不可能熱到什麼程
度吧?
記得恐龍時代的氧氣濃度也較高
恐龍都拿來做蚊香了 耐熱程度可預期
呃 是鱷魚 應該也算近親吧…
70度需要學金星或者把地球軌道往內拉吧
侏儸紀 氧13.5% 二氧化碳1900ppm 溫度比現在高3度
再熱下去,人類需要長鱗片的突變種演化了
侏儸紀 氧13.5% ??這氧氣量很稀薄勒~
是陸生植物大量出現後氧氣才漸漸上升的
中生代盤古大陸都連在一起 內陸地區可能比現在更熱
爆
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