Re: [新聞] ｢台灣曾圍堵疫情入侵｣陳時中專文登英媒

※ 引述《lycppt ()》之銘言：
: ｢台灣曾圍堵疫情入侵｣陳時中專文登英媒：成功經驗值得他國學習
: https://i.imgur.com/Ok7Bfyi.jpg

去年彭博批評的點和這標題蠻對應的

喪事喜報

嘻嘻

彭博：自滿心理戳破台灣除圍堵外什麼都沒有的防疫防線

台灣民眾和當局或許曾這麼想，新冠肺炎疫情只是外在世界會發生的事。

彭博報導指出，台灣被譽為全世界抗疫最成功的例子，但自滿心理卻暴露了台灣除有效圍堵外什麼都沒有的防線：不僅檢測少，又沒有篩檢無症狀感染的機制，還有幾近零%的疫苗施打率。

Mayo診所疫苗研究集團主任、病毒學家 Gregory Poland 接受彭博訪問說：「如果他們有300確診病例，就會有3,000例在社區內，只是不知道而已。」他說：「這就需要嚴格封鎖措施，即所謂的鎔斷手段，然後要儘快拿到疫苗。」

問題是沒有疫苗。台灣接種步調遠遠落後歐美，如此一來，將陷入像新加坡、香港等鄰近地區一樣封鎖─解封的循環。

彭博報導，台灣在諾富特飯店出現的防疫破口，凸顯台灣很大關鍵的問題在於檢驗量能太少。但疾管署去年多次解釋，普篩可能很多出現偽陽性的情形，浪費醫療資源。

彭博指出，這個立場和全球對檢驗的最佳做法相左。大部分政府更擔心的是，偽陰性會進入社區，引發疫情蔓延。

據 Our World in Data 統計，台灣5月16日每千人檢驗率只有0.18次。相較之下，澳洲是1.8，新加坡是13.1。

彭博報導認為，檢驗非常重要，因為這是掌握疫情所在和傳播速度的唯一辦法。報導引述美國約翰霍普金斯大學彭博公共衛生學院學者 Gigi Gronvall 指出，台灣若要避免再升級防疫措施，擴大檢驗是關鍵。

Gronvall告訴彭博：「他們接下來做的，檢驗應是重點。就算利用快篩，也能夠很快確定感染者。這是應該規劃並加強做的。」

此外，彭博指出，台灣並沒有像新加坡和香港一樣有檢測無症狀帶病毒者的機制。檢測的辦法之一是監測廢水，如此可以追查病毒所潛伏的地區。另一個辦法是定期檢驗高風險族群，像是移工或特種營業者。

https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/udn.com/news/amp/story/121707/5469427

英文原文

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-18/complacency-let-covid-break-down-taiwan-s-only-line-of-defense

https://bloom.bg/3v86bWk

Complacency Let Covid Erode Taiwan’s Only Line of Defense

All the virus had to do was get through the border.
病毒要作的就只要通過邊境就行了

Until this week, Taiwan’s Covid-19 containment appeared to be so effective
that virtually no other defenses were put in place: few tests, no local
surveillance to pick up undetected infection and close to zero vaccination.
直到本週以前，臺灣對Covid-19的控制似乎非常有效，幾乎沒有其他防禦措施:很少進
行檢測，沒有地方監測發現未發現的感染，疫苗接種幾乎爲零。

Lauded as one of most successful places in the world at containment, a high
level of complacency about the risks had set in among both the public and
authorities. Covid-19 seemed to be something happening only in the outside
world.
被譽爲世界上遏制疫情最成功的地方之一，公衆和當局都對風險高度自滿。Covid-19似乎只是發生在外部世界的事情。

The virus’s opening was an ill-fated decision on April 15 to shorten
quarantine for airline crew to just three days, as carriers struggled to
operate their cargo lines with staff undergoing 14-day isolation periods.
Infected pilots introduced a more transmissible U.K. variant, whose spread
was then accelerated through a network of “hostess bars” -- places both
staff and patrons were reluctant to be associated with, making contact
tracing more difficult.
4月15日，疫情爆發時，航空公司做出了一個不幸的決定，將空乘人員的隔離時間縮短至僅3天，因爲空乘人員要經歷14天的隔離期，航空公司難以運營貨運航線。受感染的飛行員引入了一種傳染性更強的英國變種，然後通過“女招待酒吧”網絡加速傳播——這些酒
吧的工作人員和顧客都不願與之聯繫在一起，這使得追蹤接觸者更加困難。

Taiwan reported 267 new infections Wednesday, bringing the total over the
past few days to 1,291 -- a small number in global terms but an astonishing
one in a place that, before May 1, had posted just 1,132 cases during the
entire pandemic.
臺灣週三報告了267例新感染病例，使過去幾天的總感染人數達到1291例。從全球來看，這是一個很小的數字，但對於一個在5月1日之前整個大流行期間只有1132例病例的地方來說，這是一個驚人的數字。

The surge from zero to quadruple digits signals that undetected spread has
been occurring for months, and concern is now growing that Taiwan will go theway of other cautionary tales, from the outbreak last year in Australia’s
Victoria state that took a brutal three-month lockdown to quell, to Thailand’s ongoing surge driven by prison clusters.
增量從零到四位數顯示未被發現的傳播已經發生幾個月了,現在關心的是不斷增長的,對於台灣會跟走跟其他國家一樣路線的擔憂陡升,可能是像去年在澳大利亞維多利亞州爆發了一個殘酷的爲期三個月的封鎖平息，到泰國持續飆升的由監獄群聚。
“If they have 300 diagnosed cases, they have 3,000 cases in the community --
they just don’t know it.” said Gregory Poland, a virologist and director of
the Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group. “It’s going to require a hard
lockdown, what’s called a circuit-breaker approach, and then getting the
vaccine out as quickly as they can.”
“如果他們有300個確診病例，他們在社區就有3000個病例——他們只是不知道。病毒學
家、梅奧診所疫苗研究小組主任格雷戈裏·波蘭說。“這將需要硬封鎖，也就是所謂熔斷
方法，然後儘快將注射疫苗。”

The problem is, there are no vaccines. As in many places that seem to have
eliminated the virus locally, Taiwan’s inoculation drive is lagging behind
European and North American economies, a major vulnerability that could trap
it in a stop-start cycle of restrictions like Singapore, Hong Kong and other
regional peers.
問題是，沒有疫苗。與許多似乎已經在本地消滅了病毒的地方一樣，臺灣的疫苗接種工作也落後於歐洲和北美經濟，這是一個主要的弱點，可能會使臺灣陷入新加坡、香港和其他地區那樣的限制-開放循環。

Taiwan officials on Wednesday expanded restrictions to the entire island as
cases rose, closing recreation venues and entertainment businesses, urging
companies to allow staff to work from home and limiting the size of
gatherings.
隨着案件增多，臺灣官員週三將限制擴大至整個島內，關閉了娛樂場所和娛樂企業，敦促企業允許員工在家工作，並限制聚會的規模。

The government is hoping that the measures can help it fend off a hard
lockdown, which will be triggered if an average of at least 100 new daily
cases is reported for 14 consecutive days and the source is unidentified in
half of the cases.
政府希望這些措施可以幫助它避免硬封鎖，如果連續14天平均每天報告至少100例新病例，並且其中一半病例的來源不明，就會觸發硬封鎖。

“Be mentally prepared that there will be tougher regulations on activities
if community transmission is not under control,” New Taipei City Mayor Hou
Yu-ih said at a briefing Monday. “We are close to another alert level for
Covid-19.”
新北市市長侯友宜在週一的新聞發佈會上說:“要做好心理準備，如果社區傳播不能得到
控制，將會有更嚴格的活動規定。”“我們已經接近Covid-19的另一個警報級別。”

Health minister Chen Shih-chung expressed confidence Wednesday Taiwan will
not enter a hard lockdown, saying officials are working hard to stay on top
of the sources of all new infections.
臺灣衛生部長陳時中星期三表示有信心，臺灣不會進入硬封鎖。他說，臺灣官員正在努力控制所有新感染源。

Border Crossing
跨越邊境

The coronavirus’s most likely route past border defenses was the Novotel
hotel near Taiwan’s biggest airport, Taoyuan International. Taiwanese
exports -- in particular semiconductors and other electronic components --
are in high demand, and Taoyuan is one of the world’s busiest air cargo hubs.新冠病毒最有可能通過邊境防禦的路線是臺灣最大機場桃源國際附近的諾富特酒店。臺灣出口產品——尤其是半導體和其他電子元件——需求旺盛，桃園是全球最繁忙的航空貨運
中心之一。

While China Airlines Ltd. crew members quarantined in one part of the
Novotel, another wing was open to members of the public attracted by cheap
staycation deals. More than 30 of the recent cases have been linked to the
airline and hotel by Taiwan’s Centers for Disease Control. Following the
lapse, the government ordered all China Airlines pilots and some flight
attendants to undergo 14-day quarantine as a “circuit breaker.” But
three-day quarantine is expected to return after that, and for EVA Airways
Corp., the rules never changed. For the Novotel cases, a clear infection
chain is yet to be identified.
雖然華航有限公司(China Airlines Ltd.，簡稱:華航)的機組人員被隔離在諾富特酒店的一個部分，但受廉價居家度假優惠吸引，另一個部分對公衆開放。臺灣疾病控制中心
(Centers for Disease Control)已將最近30多起病例與該航空公司和酒店聯繫起來。之後，政府命令所有華航機師和一些空勤人員進行14天的隔離，作爲“斷路器”。但在那
之後，預計將恢復三天的隔離檢疫，而對長榮航空公司(EVA Airways Corp.)來說，規定從未改變。對於諾富特的病例來說，還沒有明確的感染鏈。

It’s an illustration of one of Taiwan’s key problems. Covid testing has
been comparatively infrequent there, a strategy that the Taiwan CDC justifiedseveral times last year by saying that mass testing would increase the risk
of false positives wasting medical resources.
這說明了臺灣的一個關鍵問題。那裏的冠狀病毒檢測相對較少，去年臺灣疾控中心曾多次爲這一策略辯護，稱大規模檢測會增加假陽性的風險，浪費醫療資源。

That’s a position counter to global best practices on testing, with most
governments more worried about false negatives entering the population and
triggering spread.
這一立場與全球最好的檢測做法相反，因爲大多數政府更擔心假陰性結果進入人羣並引發傳播。
Taiwan administered 0.18 coronavirus tests per 1,000 people on May 16,
according to Our World in Data. In Australia the number is 1.8, while in
Singapore, it’s 13.1.
根據我們的世界數據，5月16日，臺灣每1000人中進行了0.18例冠狀病毒檢測。在澳大利亞，這一數字是1.8，而在新加坡，這一數字是13.1。

Testing is critical because it’s the only way to know where and how fast the
virus is moving. Increasing testing will be a key step if Taiwan wants to
avoid a hard lockdown, said Gigi Gronvall, a senior scholar at the Center forHealth Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
檢測是至關重要的，因爲這是瞭解病毒傳播地點和速度的唯一途徑。約翰·霍普金斯大學布隆伯格公共衛生學院(Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)健康安全中心(Center for Health Security)高級學者吉吉·格隆瓦爾(Gigi Gronvall)表示，如
果臺灣希望避免嚴格封鎖，增加檢測將是關鍵步驟。

“That needs to be a big part of what they do next,” Gronvall said. “Even
the use of rapid tests are able to quickly identify people who are
infectious. That’s something that should be deployed and scaled up.”
格隆瓦爾說:“這需要成爲他們下一步工作的重要組成部分。”“即使使用快篩也能
快速識別出感染者。這是應該部署和擴大的東西。”

Since its lack of outbreak meant it didn’t have to keep up with the latest
practices in fighting Covid-19, Taiwan did not put in place measures that
other places like Singapore and Hong Kong have used to detect asymptomatic
carriers.
由於臺灣沒有疫情爆發，不需要跟上新冠肺炎疫情的最新情況，所以沒有像新加坡、香港等地那樣採取措施，發現無症狀感染者。

The high share of infected people who are asymptomatic is a key challenge
with the coronavirus and makes containment much harder than with pandemics
like the 2003 SARS outbreak.
無症狀感染者的高比例是冠狀病毒的一個關鍵挑戰，這使得遏制疫情比2003年SARS疫情等大流行困難得多。

Infection Hotspot
感染熱點

One way to detect asymptomatic spread is wastewater surveillance, which can
pick up traces of where the virus is lurking. Another is routine testing of
high-risk populations like migrant-worker communities or nightlife staff.
檢測無症狀傳播的一種方法是廢水監測，這可以發現病毒潛伏的地方。另一種方法是對移民工人社區或夜生活人員等高危人羣進行例行檢測。

In Taiwan, the latter is the nexus of its outbreak.
在臺灣，後者是疫情爆發的紐帶。

Many of Taipei’s illicit hostess bars are found in the city’s Wanhua
district, which has become a hot spot for infection. More than 2,000 people
were tested locally as of Sunday, with a positive rate of 10.8%. A rate
higher than 5% indicates the dragnet in the search for people who may have
been exposed to the virus isn’t wide enough.
臺北的許多非法酒吧都在萬華區，這裏已經成爲感染的熱點。截至上週日，當地共有2000多人接受了檢測，陽性率爲10.8%。高於5%的比率表明，對可能接觸過病毒的人的搜尋力度不夠。

Bars where patrons pay to spend time socializing with escorts known as “hosts” or “hostesses” pose a number of virus risks, as authorities in Japan
have also discovered. These establishments tend to have few windows and poor
ventilation, while close contact -- including sharing drinks or singing
together -- can allow infections to spread. Alcohol consumption makes
reckless behavior more likely, and customers are often reluctant to admit
they have visited these clubs, which makes tracing coronavirus cases even
harder.

日本當局也發現，在酒吧裏，顧客花錢與被稱爲“男公關”或“女招待”的伴遊女郎進
行社交活動，會帶來一系列病毒風險。這些場所的窗戶很少，通風也很差，而密切接觸
——包括分享飲料或一起唱歌——可能會導致感染傳播。飲酒使魯莽行爲更有可能發生
，顧客往往不願承認他們去過這些俱樂部，這使得追蹤冠狀病毒病例更加困難。

For instance, contact tracing has linked dozens of cases to a past president
of Lions Club International, who was later found to have spent time at a
hostess bar in Wanhua. “We didn’t know the connection to tea house at first,
” Health Minister Chen said, using a euphemism for these establishments. He
added that the patient only shared the information “after our investigation.
” The hostesses themselves are often reticent too. One recent patient was
admitted to a general hospital ward for three days with another ailment
before staff gave her a Covid test, at which point she admitted she was the
boss of a hostess bar.
例如，追蹤接觸者將數十例病例與國際獅子俱樂部(Lions Club International)前任主席聯繫在一起，後來發現他曾在萬華的一家酒吧招待客人。“我們一開始並不知道這和茶館有關，”陳部長說，這是對茶館的一種委婉稱呼。他補充說，患者只是在“我們的調查之
後”才分享了這些信息。女招待本身也往往沉默寡言。最近，一名患者因另一種疾病在一家綜合醫院病房住了三天，之後工作人員給她做了Covid檢測，她承認自己是一家酒吧的老闆。

The question now is how Taiwan gets the situation back under control.
現在的問題是臺灣如何控制局勢。

The virus is running rampant among a population where few people have been
vaccinated or previously infected. As of Monday, just 0.9% of Taiwan’s 23.5
million people had received their first vaccine shot. China has administered
enough vaccinations for about 14.5% of its population, while more than
one-third of the U.S. -- and more than 30% of the U.K. -- is already fully
protected.
這種病毒在很少有人接種過疫苗或以前感染過的人羣中猖獗蔓延。截至週一，臺灣2350萬人中只有0.9%接受了首次疫苗注射。中國爲約14.5%的人口接種了足夠的疫苗，而美國三分之一以上的人口以及英國30%以上的人口已經得到了充分的保護。

It will be hard to ramp up inoculations quickly. Convincing a population thathasn’t felt much threat from the virus to get vaccinated is one issue. But
there’s also the supply chain. As of Tuesday, Taiwan had only taken delivery
of 315,000 doses of the AstraZeneca Plc vaccine, with another 410,000 doses
arriving today.
很難迅速增加接種。說服沒有感受到病毒威脅的人羣接種疫苗是一個問題。但還有供應鏈。截至週二，臺灣只接收了31.5萬劑阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)疫苗，另有41萬劑已於今日抵達。
Taipei’s representative to the U.S., Hsiao Bi-khim, said in a Facebook post
on Tuesday that 5 million Moderna shots will arrive in the middle of the
year, but even that will cover only a fraction of the population. Central
Epidemic Command Center spokesperson Chuang Jen-hsiang said in April that thenext batch of AstraZeneca vaccines will likely arrive by June 15, and Taiwan
is likely to be a beneficiary of U.S. President Joe Biden’s pledge to share
millions of doses of FDA-authorized vaccines with foreign nations by the end
of June.
臺北駐美國代表蕭美琴週二在臉書上說，今年年中會有500萬張Moderna的疫苗到達，但即便如此，也只能覆蓋一小部分人口。中央流行指揮中心發言人莊仁祥說4月,阿斯
利康的下一批疫苗可能會到達在6月15日和臺灣可能是美國總統拜登的受益者的承諾分享數百萬FDA-authorized疫苗的劑量與外國國家到6月底。

The positive rate in fast-screening stations in Taipei City dropped to 4.7%
on Tuesday from 11% on Friday, Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported, citing
Mayor Ko Wen-je and stating that stay-at-home curbs help control the
outbreak. Officials hope that measures like contact tracing and a population
highly compliant with public health curbs like mask-wearing can keep spread
under control until more vaccines arrive.
臺灣中央通訊社(Central News Agency)援引臺北市市長柯文哲的話說，臺北市快速篩查站的陽性率從上週五的11%降至週二的4.7%，他說居家防控有助於控制疫情。官員們希望，追蹤接觸者等措施，以及佩戴口罩等高度遵守公共衛生限制的人羣，可以在更多疫苗到達之前控制傳播。

It could be a long wait.
可能要等很長時間。

--
讀書 就像打魔獸 要出錢又要出力氣
人生 就像練等級 不能避免就要學會享受
工作 就像下副本 你不行了就換別人上 ▁▁
告白 就像解任務 不是成功就是失敗 ▕Ａ６▏
▕出品▏
￣￣

--