[外絮] 交易大限前的拓荒者

前言:篇幅長，所以我沒有全篇翻，挑重點整理

來源:The rose garden report (Sean Highkin 拓荒者隊伍記者)
網址:https://reurl.cc/GXMrLd
https://reurl.cc/LX9drK (拓荒者球迷信箱答疑)

https://i.imgur.com/pcoo4Wo.jpg

There are no trades yet—just a lot of waiting and a lot of rumors. And with
that comes a lot of stress for everyone. For those of us on the media side,
it's trying to chase this stuff and figure out which whispers we hear are
real and which ones are posturing. For you, the fan, it's spending hours
killing time on the Trade Machine wondering why your team's GM won't just do
something already. For the GMs themselves, there are a lot of moving parts tojuggle—multiple talks about the same players with different teams, figuring
out what works under the salary cap, mitigating leaks and leverage plays.
目前尚未有交易案發生，只能在滿滿的乳摸中等待。山雨欲來風滿樓，對於我們這群
記者來說，一直在試圖確認這些留言是否真實，抑或只是來帶帶風向。但對球迷而言，
只是玩玩Trade Machine來殺時間並質疑總管怎麼還沒開始動作。可總管的層面有
需多細節需要處理，沙盤推演同一位球員在不同球隊的狀況，包含薪資空間的利用、
降低見光死的風險及後續的蝴蝶效應

It's even worse for players. Even the guys that swear they don't read social
media or pay attention to this stuff are lying. Everyone in every locker roomsees the same rumors you see and knows who's on the block, even if they don'ttalk about it in the open. They hear you screaming online to trade them. Someare affected by it, some are not. The players who know they're being traded
know that means they're going to have to move their families to a new city onshort notice. You can make the argument that NBA players get paid a lot of
money to deal with these headaches, but that doesn't mean they're not real.
對球員的影響更糟，甚至是那群發誓不關注社交媒體或這些流言的人只是在說謊罷了，
每一位在更衣室的球員都會跟你各位看見相同的乳摸，且更清楚知道誰在檯面上，
即使他們不會公開談論這些。當球迷在網路大喊交易時，有些球員會受影響，有些不會。球員當被告知交易時，不得不短時間準備好帶著家人搬到新城市，你確實可以說NBA球員賺這麼多錢本來就該面對這些，但這就是實際發生在球員身上的事

It makes everyone in the building on-edge, especially within teams in
situations like Portland's, where losses have piled up lately and everybody
knows changes are coming. Even Damian Lillard, the most even-keeled player
I've ever covered, snapped at a reporter a couple weeks ago for asking a
question about the trade deadline after a bad loss to the Lakers, and he's
the only guy on this team that knows he's not getting traded. Everyone's
feeling it, and everyone would rather it be in the rear view.
這使得每個人都處於風口浪尖，尤其是像波特蘭這樣的球隊，近期的影響逐漸增大，
且每位球員都知道即將有變動。就連Dame也一樣，在我採訪生涯中最冷靜的球員，
也在幾週前輸給湖人的比賽後，對一名提問關於交易大限的記者發火，他也是隊伍
唯一一名不會被交易的球員。每位球員都能感受到這股氛圍，也希望能在未來藍圖內。

The Blazers are in a very different spot now than they were a year ago. In
February of 2022, they had already made the decision to shut Lillard down fora core muscle surgery and pivot the rest of that season towards what they
called "player development," which really just meant losing a lot of games toget a high draft pick. Everyone knew C.J. McCollum was being shopped, along
with other high-priced veterans like Norman Powell and Robert Covington who
weren't going to be part of the long-term plan and didn't click with
first-year head coach Chauncey Billups. The organization was still picking upthe pieces from last winter's investigation and eventual firing of president
of basketball operations Neil Olshey, and it wasn't clear how much authority
Cronin would have to make a major trade as an interim GM still trying to earnthe permanent job.
拓荒者目前的狀況跟一年前大不相同。2022年2月，決定把小李關機進行核心肌肉手術，並在剩餘賽程開展所謂的"球員發展"計畫，其實就是開坦高順位選秀籤。每個人都清楚
CJ擺在貨架上，包含高價值的老將，像是砲哥及RoCo，他們不被放在球隊的未來藍圖，
且跟第一年的總教練槍西不合。球團也正在處理2021冬天的調查，並開除了前總管奧總，而剛上任的臨時總管克總也還不清楚有多少權力去處理重大交易，且在努力爭取正式的
總管身分。

Now comes the hard part: taking a roster with some things to like but a long,long way to go to become elite, and reshaping it again into whatever the
contending version of the final years of Lillard's prime will look like.
現在是困難的階段：構建球隊陣容，目前要成為勁旅還有很長很長的路要走，如何在小李最後的幾年巔峰期去重組名單。

--------------以下是球迷信箱答疑---------

"Do you think the Blazers' recent play this season will affect Jerami Grant'swillingness to re-sign with Portland this year? And more importantly, if
Grant and his team force Cronin to wait until unrestricted free agency—when
they're competing against Memphis and 'maybe' Los Angeles, will he be worth
paying $120-$160M in salary over 4-5 years? Would that turn the Blazers into,as Hollinger describes them, "Wizards West?"
「你認為拓荒者近期的表現是否會影響Grant的續約意願?更重要的，要是Grant團隊
迫使克總等到Grant變成非受限自由球員，當拓荒者對決灰熊或洛城雙雄是否值得給他
120-160M/4or5y的合約? 會不會讓拓荒者變成火靈哥描述的那樣"西區巫師隊"?」

I don't think a few bad weeks in January changes anything on either side. TheBlazers didn't trade for Grant to let him walk after one season, and Grant
from what I know is very happy here.
我不認為1月份幾個糟糕的星期會改變雙方任何事情。拓荒者不會讓Grant打一季就離開，且就我所知，Grant待得很開心

Grant recently told The Athletic that he's unlikely to sign the four-year,
$112 million extension he's eligible for right now, which isn't a surprise.
Why would he lock himself into a number he's outplayed this season when he'llbe able to get more years and more money by waiting six months? It's probablygoing to be one of those deals that gets "agreed to" at 12:01 on June 30,
like Anfernee Simons this past summer, because the Blazers and Grant's
representatives will already have a good idea of what makes both sides happy.So I wouldn't expect any drama there.
Grant最近告知The Athletic他不太可能簽下112M/4Y的續約合約，這其實不令人意外。
他的賽季表現遠大於這個金額的價值，尤其六個月後能獲得更多錢及更多的合約年，
何必現在接受呢? 但很有可能成為自由市場剛開市就談妥的合約之一，像是去年的賽門
一樣，因為拓荒者球團跟Grant團隊已經有共識什麼能讓雙方都開心，所以我不覺得會有任何的抓馬發生。

I'd expect the deal he ultimately signs to be somewhere in the range of $30
million per year over four or five years, enough above the $28 million annualsalary that would be his max now for him to be able to say he earned a biggerdeal, but not so much more that it kills Portland's cap sheet long-term.
Grant turns 29 in March; even if he's able to get a fifth year by waiting
until the summer to re-sign with Portland, his next contract will take him
through his age-34 season. It's not crazy at all to think he'll still be a
productive player by then, and the final three years of the deal will be
under the much higher salary cap that's expected to come when the league's
new TV deal kicks in in 2025.
我預計Grant會簽下年均30M的四年或五年合約，足以超過他目前的最高年薪28M，他會獲得更高的薪水，但並不會卡死拓荒者未來薪資空間，即使暑假有利用鳥權簽下五年合約，綁定他到34歲。認為他到時仍然是一名有貢獻能力的球員也不太瘋狂，甚至最後三年期間的薪資帽預期會提高很多，因2025年新電視轉播合約開始生效。

You're going to see the number of $233 million thrown around as the max Grantcould sign for this summer, but that's just what he's eligible to get under
league rules. It's not going to be close to that. As we see every summer whendeals get reported in the opening minutes of the free agency period, teams
and players often have handshake agreements already in place. Given the
positive things both sides have said about each other here, I'd be shocked ifthat wasn't the case with Grant and the Blazers.
你會看到Grant可能簽下233M的頂薪，那是他有資格根據聯盟CBA所能爭取到的最大金額。但不會接近這數字的。當簽約消息在自由市場開市後被報導時，球隊與球員通常已經有
握手協議。根據雙方已經商談過的積極意向，如果拓荒者跟Grant分手我會非常驚訝。

(後續跟巫師的戰文內容我略過，這篇不是用來戰的)

"We gotta trade Hart, right? I mean...we just gotta. We won't let him walk, soif we don't trade him, we end up signing him, when we don't really want
to...at least that's my guess.

SO - who do you see out there? Who makes sense? Would Hart get us Vanderbilt?Do the Bucks make sense for Hart? Ingles? SO - do you think we trade him, andif so, who do you see out there? If you don't think we trade him, do you
think we end up signing him? For how much? Thanks! So happy I subscribed.
I'll certainly be a long term subscriber. Thanks for your work."
「我們會交易Hart，對吧? 我是說，可能必須交易。我們不會讓Hart變空氣，所以假如
我們不交易他，我們即使不想最終也會續約他，這只是我的猜測。

那你有什麼消息嗎?交易誰合理? Hart for Vanderbilt(Jazz)?公鹿對Hart有興趣嗎?
換Ingles? 如果你覺得拓荒者不會交易Hart，那你認為拓荒者會續約嗎?開多少價碼?」

Nothing is done until it's done, but I'll be very surprised if Hart is still
a Blazer at this time next week, for all the reasons you've laid out. Nassir
Little has played well enough to start since coming back from his hip injury
last month, and re-signing Hart for what his market value will be doesn't
make sense financially considering the other money they'll have committed to
starters and how far the roster still has to go to be a contender.
交易完成前什麼也做不了，但要是Hart交易大限之後還留在拓荒者，我會非常驚訝，
因為你已經把原因說出來了。Little從臀部傷勢回歸後，表現已經足夠好，且重簽Hart
的市場合理價格對於薪資空間的利用沒有道理，這是因為考量到會給其他先發球員更多
的薪資，且必須把拓荒者的球員名單打造成勁旅。

I don't like to get too deep into hypothetical trade targets because I
actually talk to the people involved here, so I'm wary of what I say I think
they could get for Hart being misconstrued as reporting that they've actuallyhad those talks, but I will say that Hart easily has the most value of anyoneon the roster likely to be moved. He checks all the boxes of being on a good
contract and being a valuable and versatile enough player that every team in
the league would want him, to where Portland could get something of value forhim. That's why I think he's just about certain to be moved.
我不喜歡太過深入的探討交易目標，因為我實際跟拓荒者相關人員聊過，所以我必須
謹慎得把持能透漏的內容，否則很可能讓Hart被誤解報導出來已經有商談交易事宜，
但我可以很肯定Hart是可動名單內最有價值的球員。Hart符合所有條件，良好合約，
有價值且多功能性的球員，聯盟內幾乎所有球隊都會需要他，以至於拓荒者可以取得
不錯的資產回報。這就是我認為Hart幾乎是一定會被交易出去的理由。

"There's been lots of talk of Hart, Nurk & Winslow being available on the
trade market.

But I'm wondering, of all the other guys not discussed as much, who do you
think is the one most likely to be traded that might be a surprise to the
fanbase? Watford? GP2? Nas? We've heard Dame and Ant are untouchable, Grant
and Shaedon also but little else.

Interested to hear your thoughts."
「近期有很多關於Hart、Nurkic和Winslow的乳摸。但我想知道是否有其他沒有太多討論的球員中，有你認為最有可能被交易的球員，並會讓球迷震驚的? Watford? GP2? Little?因為我們已經了解小李、賽門是不動產，也包含Sharpe跟Grant，除了他們都有可能。
想聽聽看你的看法。」

The three you named at the top—Hart, Nurkic and Winslow—are the most likely
to be gone in a week, and I'd add Keon Johnson to that list, too. Not becausethe organization doesn't like him—they do—but there just aren't minutes for
him in the rotation with so many other guards. He's also a former first-roundpick in just his second year in the league, meaning he has two more years
after this one on a cheap rookie contract, and has had nice moments when he'sgotten on the floor, so other teams might look at him as someone with upside
they could take a flier on.
這三位你提到的球員『Hart、Nurkic、Winslow』確實是最有可能在一週後離開的球員，且我還會加上Keon Johnson到這個名單內，不是因為拓荒者不喜歡Keon，正因為喜歡，
但目前球隊有太多的後衛，導致Keon沒辦法獲得上場時間。他是首輪新秀且才打第二年，且還有兩年的便宜新秀合約，場上有很不錯的高光表現，所以其他隊伍有可能評估他還有上升空間，並願意賭他的潛力

I would also push back on there being that many "untouchable" players on the
roster. I don't think anyone not named Damian Lillard is flat-out off limits
in any kind of trade talks. The three you named, Simons, Grant and Sharpe,
are not being shopped and are extremely unlikely to be moved, but I don't
think they'd be non-starters in a truly franchise-altering deal, whatever
that may be. The previous general manager refused to even listen to any tradeoffers involving C.J. McCollum for years; I don't get the sense that Cronin
has that same non-negotiable stance on anyone outside of Lillard.
其實我對球團有這麼多的"不動產"球員持相反意見，我認為除了小李之外的其他人都有
商談交易的空間，Simons、Grant和Sharpe確實沒有放上貨架，也不太可能會被交易，
但如果有能讓球隊質變的交易商談，他們會是受歡迎的人選，不管那可能是什麼提案。
多年來，前總管一直拒絕聽取任何關於CJ的報價，但我不認為克總對任何球員會有一樣的態度，除了小李。

--------------

心得:

中鋒Hart看起來應該是會交易了，他真的很容易讓球迷印象深刻，不論是場上的表現，
還是推特的搞笑，Hart到任何一支球隊應該都會讓球迷喜愛，他真的很棒！

拓荒者傷兵潮還沒結束，Winslow都快回來了，結果最近換Nurkic進去躺，GP2也生病了，天佑拓荒者，開季至今，球員名單14人沒有完整過，偉災靈氣(嘆)

PS.如果內容有誤，板友隨時指正，感謝

--

對的，主要都打3號，槍西打過死亡五小的時候有擺過C...

確實XD 開玩笑為主 不過槍西擺過

Keon就真的沒辦法了，只能祝福他QQ

沒錯，右下角領頭羊，很大的因素是他太胖了加上放球手感很爛