[情報] 96W TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W) //
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.3N 127.2E TO 9.1N 127.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 127.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.3N 127.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 160937Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING THROUGHOUT
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 161310Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALS A
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29C
AND 30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171500Z.
//
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