Re: [問題] 二戰德軍沒攻下列寧格勒是不能還是不為

翻了一下The Naval War in the Baltic 1939–1945一書
作者有提到幾個點

1.芬蘭不想打列寧格勒

The Finnish forces had a superiority of two to one and they were able to
advance, while the Soviet forces were on a fast and chaotic retreat. The
German command wanted the Finnish forces to move quickly towards Leningrad,
so that they could meet the German forces as they advanced towards the city
from the south and west. Mannerheim declined. The Finnish government had no
desire to participate in an attack on Leningrad, and Finland also lacked the
necessary dive-bombers and heavy artillery to carry out such an operation. IfFinland had agreed, Leningrad would undoubtedly have fallen around the middleof September.
德國指揮部希望芬蘭迅速向列寧格勒發起進攻，以同時夾擊該城市，但是Mannerheim(芬蘭總司令)拒絕，芬蘭無意參與，同時也缺乏必要的俯衝轟炸機及重型火炮來執行這樣的行動。
作者認為，如果芬蘭同意，列寧格勒會在9月中旬左右淪陷。

Mannerheim knew that Finland’s fate would be sealed if Germany lost the war
and he had helped them take Leningrad. At the time around the American entry
into the Second World War, diplomatic pressure, among other things, was put
on Finland by the United States, with the message that if Finland actively
participated in the capture of Leningrad or of the railway line between
Murmansk and Leningrad, then Finnish wishes would not be taken into account
after the war. Unlike Great Britain, the United States did not declare war onFinland.

Mannerheim知道，如果芬蘭攻擊列寧格勒，就坐實了德國支持者的角色，一旦德國戰敗，芬蘭就慘了，特別是美國在不斷對芬蘭施加外交壓力。
(芬蘭:美國，怕。)

2.蘇聯波羅的海艦隊的火炮支援貫穿整個列寧格勒圍城戰，沒有停過。

3.隨著莫斯科的戰鬥陷入膠著，部分部隊被調離列寧格勒戰場。包括德國空軍的VIII. Fliegerkorps
(事實上我一直認為德國空軍比起德國陸軍數量更不足以支撐東線戰場的需求，特別是空軍長時間承受西面盟軍很巨大的空中壓力，人手根本不夠，但是還沒有深入研究過)
作者在書中也非常重視、一直提及德國空中優勢持續弱化的問題。
The Baltic Fleet air force had been gradually expanded. The aircraft were,
technologically speaking, not very sophisticated, and the pilots were not as
skilled as their German counterparts, but German air superiority was
gradually reduced in line with the German command being in need of offensive
and defensive aircraft on the other sections of the front. The air defences
in Leningrad had already in 1941 subjected the Luftwaffe to unacceptably highlosses.

4.德國東線戰場北部的軍事行動就算沒有列寧格勒，也持續有由海上進行補給，甚至整個北半部戰場的燃料供應幾乎是由瑞典油輪運輸來的。
Fuel supplies to the northern half of the Eastern Front were almost
exclusively transported by Swedish tankers – the Swedish government had
given its tacit approval to this traffic. The shipowners did incredibly well
out of it, and payment often came in oil, petrol and coal. There was also an
opportunity here to increase revenue, but the shipping transports cost the
lives of many Swedish sailors. Germany paid war reparations if the ships weresunk because of acts of war; the standard marine insurance was no longer
valid, but the Germans were good payers, solely because of their need for
shipping tonnage.

我認為在整體戰事來看，拿下通往內陸的鐵路以使資源能從波羅的海送往莫斯科等內陸戰場應該比列寧格勒的後勤價值要來的高，暴風行動的核心補給問題還是蘇聯內陸爛爆的地形。
列寧格勒的核心價值應該在蘇聯波羅的海艦隊的完全消滅，不過單論此時對補給的影響，儘管波羅的海的海上運輸時而受到蘇聯潛艇的攻擊，但是數量不多，1942年，蘇聯潛艇約擊沉45,000頓，共18艘船。
水面艦隊基本上被水雷關廁所，最大的作用就是支援圍城作戰。

感覺最好還是別圍列寧格勒，有海軍支持的城市本來就比較難啃，德國又不是沒有塔林來運送物資，只是路還是太爛阿。
總的來說將部隊集中至更重要的戰場對於大局我想會更有效益。

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