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[討論] Pennsylvania 賓州結果推估

看板HatePolitics標題[討論] Pennsylvania 賓州結果推估作者
hugoyo
(阿佑)
時間推噓20 推:20 噓:0 →:17

線性大師這次真的大獲全勝了,那就來外插一下賓州勝負

假設 67個縣 全部外插至 100% 推估投票數 (用XiNN的)

開出比例 已開出 外插 已開出 外插
Adams 68% Trump 29,944 44,035 Biden 6,611 9,722
Allegheny 70% Trump 237,435 339,193 Biden 283,368 404,811
Armstrong 81% Trump 24,233 29,917 Biden 4,275 5,278
Beaver 66% Trump 45,464 68,885 Biden 17,304 26,218
Bedford 99% Trump 22,529 22,757 Biden 4,266 4,309
Berks 93% Trump 105,149 113,063 Biden 88,474 95,133
Blair 84% Trump 40,391 48,085 Biden 12,696 15,114
Bradford 87% Trump 19,411 22,311 Biden 5,210 5,989
Bucks 55% Trump 124,338 226,069 Biden 93,922 170,767
Butler 69% Trump 61,215 88,717 Biden 15,765 22,848
Cambria 93% Trump 46,884 50,413 Biden 20,572 22,120
Cameron 99% Trump 1,738 1,756 Biden 621 627
Carbon 73% Trump 18,221 24,960 Biden 5,050 6,918
Centre 83% Trump 34,830 41,964 Biden 37,356 45,007
Chester 70% Trump 107,803 154,004 Biden 106,128 151,611
Clarion 77% Trump 12,826 16,657 Biden 2,657 3,451
Clearfield 95% Trump 28,662 30,171 Biden 9,300 9,789
Clinton 95% Trump 11,419 12,020 Biden 5,171 5,443
Columbia 99% Trump 19,607 19,805 Biden 10,051 10,153
Crawford 73% Trump 24,180 33,123 Biden 6,053 8,292
Cumberland 63% Trump 61,680 97,905 Biden 24,861 39,462
Dauphin 99% Trump 64,887 65,542 Biden 76,671 77,445
Delaware 74% Trump 100,703 136,085 Biden 150,731 203,691
Elk 95% Trump 11,931 12,559 Biden 4,440 4,674
Erie 70% Trump 56,471 80,673 Biden 41,888 59,840
Fayette 95% Trump 39,182 41,244 Biden 18,359 19,325
Forest 99% Trump 1,864 1,883 Biden 715 722
Franklin 73% Trump 48,912 67,003 Biden 9,483 12,990
Fulton 95% Trump 6,660 7,011 Biden 1,068 1,124
Greene 74% Trump 10,708 14,470 Biden 2,210 2,986
Huntingdon 95% Trump 16,937 17,828 Biden 5,389 5,673
Indiana 69% Trump 24,008 34,794 Biden 5,801 8,407
Jefferson 95% Trump 17,702 18,634 Biden 4,448 4,682
Juniata 82% Trump 8,357 10,191 Biden 1,123 1,370
Lackawanna 99% Trump 51,396 51,915 Biden 61,001 61,617
Lancaster 82% Trump 143,390 174,866 Biden 82,496 100,605
Lawrence 95% Trump 29,071 30,601 Biden 15,557 16,376
Lebanon 95% Trump 44,610 46,958 Biden 22,145 23,311
Lehigh 66% Trump 67,889 102,862 Biden 54,283 82,247
Luzerne 76% Trump 74,275 97,730 Biden 43,319 56,999
Lycoming 95% Trump 40,707 42,849 Biden 16,539 17,409
McKean 95% Trump 13,383 14,087 Biden 4,351 4,580
Mercer 69% Trump 30,471 44,161 Biden 10,713 15,526
Mifflin 95% Trump 16,206 17,059 Biden 4,317 4,544
Monroe 59% Trump 29,529 50,049 Biden 17,713 30,022
Montgomery 77% Trump 158,254 205,525 Biden 225,935 293,422
Montour 65% Trump 4,742 7,295 Biden 1,619 2,491
Northampton 88% Trump 76,176 86,564 Biden 69,177 78,610
Northumberland 95% Trump 27,888 29,356 Biden 12,261 12,906
Perry 95% Trump 17,879 18,820 Biden 5,704 6,004
Philadelphia 48% Trump 101,345 211,135 Biden 289,477 603,077
Pike 95% Trump 18,951 19,948 Biden 12,845 13,521
Potter 95% Trump 7,117 7,492 Biden 1,686 1,775
Schuylkill 90% Trump 45,078 50,087 Biden 17,106 19,007
Snyder 95% Trump 13,816 14,543 Biden 4,848 5,103
Somerset 95% Trump 31,105 32,742 Biden 8,543 8,993
Sullivan 95% Trump 2,573 2,708 Biden 890 937
Susquehanna 95% Trump 14,878 15,661 Biden 6,084 6,404
Tioga 79% Trump 13,387 16,946 Biden 2,616 3,311
Union 95% Trump 12,175 12,816 Biden 7,302 7,686
Venango 95% Trump 18,286 19,248 Biden 7,475 7,868
Warren 95% Trump 14,020 14,758 Biden 5,987 6,302
Washington 95% Trump 70,760 74,484 Biden 43,949 46,262
Wayne 99% Trump 18,383 18,569 Biden 9,056 9,147
Westmoreland 81% Trump 118,079 145,777 Biden 50,119 61,875
Wyoming 95% Trump 9,819 10,336 Biden 4,642 4,886
York 95% Trump 142,934 150,457 Biden 85,073 89,551

現狀
Trump: 2,964,853 (+677,988)
Biden: 2,286,865

外插
Trump: 3,832,132 (+663,763)
Biden: 3,168,369

賓州州長還是趕快加印40萬張票吧,30萬全部給藍的還是不夠


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Rrrxddd11/04 17:40m

Szss11/04 17:40哈哈哈

ziq11/04 17:40他現在說一百萬張 顆顆

leamaSTC11/04 17:40已經100萬了 跟上好嗎

iamjojo11/04 17:40現在說有一百萬張喔 夠了吧

young2311/04 17:40現在怕的是多數未開的是郵寄選票,那就是不是用外推去算

heybro11/04 17:41還有一百萬張辣

sheng7631411/04 17:41線性大師是什麼梗 沒跟到 求講解謝謝

LeftCorner11/04 17:41已經開口一百萬了你沒跟上

Moratti11/04 17:42100萬都準備好了

cactusicecre11/04 17:42做個wi的

FoRTuNaTeR11/04 17:42乾!賓州變關鍵

圖 Pennsylvania 賓州結果推估

tsgd11/04 17:42現在數據要開到90:10萬才能贏哦XD 開10張有9張登登 畫面太美

FoRTuNaTeR11/04 17:43距離做票成功僅有最後一里路

lovegensokyo11/04 17:43還有一百萬票啦,穩了

young2311/04 17:43郵寄選票的比例是懸殊的1:2,甚至更誇張

FoRTuNaTeR11/04 17:44現在最抖的我知道是誰

pemit11/04 17:45拜登超穩

fytnship11/04 17:49#1Vea7DMY 這篇也有粗估 連這篇看起來計算差距頗大?

massi01311/04 17:51做票的最後一哩路

yyyyy11/04 17:52報導說賓州有240萬通訊投票 150萬是民主黨 55萬共和黨

yyyyy11/04 17:52如果賓州被登登翻盤逆轉就有趣了

dash00711/04 17:55問題是,賓州是可以反悔的,已經寄出了可以當天改親投

dash00711/04 17:55所以不見得開得到那麼多

young2311/04 17:55不是我要潑冷水,從外推推估還有175萬左右未開,若全是郵

young2311/04 17:55寄,照提前投票的比例...很不妙

moike2211/04 17:569:1有什麼難 真要做100萬都是拜登的都沒問題

yyyyy11/04 17:57現在賓州已開的票數是525萬 占64% 也就是還有295萬票沒開

young2311/04 17:59那個64%是錯的

yyyyy11/04 18:00我川現在領先67萬票 也就是登登要逆轉 剩下295萬票要拿

young2311/04 18:01剩下約175萬

yyyyy11/04 18:02182萬票

yyyyy11/04 18:03如果剩下175萬 那登登要拿122萬票 約7成選票

young2311/04 18:08所以可以很接近...因為郵寄投票的比例拜登贏很多

young2311/04 18:08如果真照郵寄比例開出,川普應該會以非常微小的差距獲勝