Re: [新聞] NFLX訂閱數首衰 擬對共用帳戶加錢

串流或者電子購物網站 其實都可以搭配網路流量分析去看他們衰退來預測財報
以Netflix為例 網路流量衰退的很明顯 剛好跟美國解封時間有吻合
https://www.similarweb.com/website/netflix.com/#traffic

我是使用Similarweb插件 所以可以看到六個月的網路流量 網頁版非付費版會少很多資訊針對Netflix 過去六個月流量 摘錄如下
Oct 2021 Monthly Visit 2.71B
Nov 2021 Monthly Visit 2.47B
Dec 2021 Monthly Visit 2.72B
Jan 2022 Monthly Visit 2.74B
Feb 2022 Monthly Visit 2.18B
Mar 2022 Monthly Visit 2.26B

接者以下是D+
https://www.similarweb.com/website/disneyplus.com/#geography

Oct 2021 Monthly Visit 268.66M
Nov 2021 Monthly Visit 298.60M
Dec 2021 Monthly Visit 374.44M
Jan 2022 Monthly Visit 411.69M
Feb 2022 Monthly Visit 310.04M
Mar 2022 Monthly Visit 328.10M

整體來說D+訂閱率看起來會比N家好 但最近CEO已經桶了LGBTQ題材
弄得越來越糟 有興趣再分享這部分 或者搜索我之前發文

另外一個隱憂是 前任CEO Bob Iger之前在公司未來佈局跟現任CEO吵了一架
簡單來說 前任CEO認為戲院電影模式不該放棄 他一直認為電影院是一個社交基礎空間
迪士尼許多content佈局是比較適合電影院模式(一年一片等) 而非串流(數個月產一片)

然而現任CEO卻不認同此 把所有電影部門人全部下放 把所有資源過度集中在D+
電影電視部門高層紛紛出走 甚至好萊屋合作對象 紛紛對現任CEO頗有微詞
現在回過頭來 前任CEO的佈局方式有可能是對的 當回歸到疫情前生活越來越接近
越來越多人傾向出門交友 而電影院可能會是一個另一種賺錢選項
在高通膨時代 人們也許會願意花費20塊美金看一場電影
達到出去戶外跟朋友同歡樂享受 而非每月花個20美金 在家看影音
畢竟誰想天天關在家裡

至於公園目前營運狀態 網頁上顯示票賣得不差 這也代表保守派Don't say gay Bill
杯葛還沒產生影響 考量到種種上述 我持續認為迪士尼在120 以下買入會比較安全
操作方式如同之前文章 ( https://www.pttweb.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1647800000.A.FB7 )

最後 替藍天工作室致敬
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5N_4zeBeft8

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Blueskies 這詞原意想想也真是諷刺 Disney之前可是最提倡Blue Skies Project導向

※ 引述《Severine (賽非茵)》之銘言：
: 原文少了一些資訊 這篇說的多一點
: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/netflix-nflx-earnings-q1-2022.html
: Netflix on Tuesday reported a loss of 200,000 subscribers during the first
: quarter — its first decline in paid users in more than a decade — and
: warned of deepening trouble ahead.
: Netflix 週二公佈,第一季度用戶減少20萬,這是該公司10多年來首次出現付費用戶減少,: 並警告稱,未來可能會出現更大的麻煩.
: The company’s shares cratered more than 25% in extended hours after the
: report on more than a full day’s worth of trading volume. Fellow streaming
: stocks Roku, Spotify and Disney also tumbled in the after-hours market after: Netflix’s brutal update.
: 該公司股價在報告公佈一天以上的交易量之後,連續幾個小時暴跌超過25% .其他流媒體股: 票 Roku,Spotify 和迪士尼也在 Netflix 的殘酷更新後下跌.
: Netflix is forecasting a global paid subscriber loss of 2 million for the
: second quarter. The last time Netflix lost subscribers was October 2011.
: 預計第二季度全球付費用戶將損失200萬美元.上一次 Netflix 流失訂戶是在2011年10月.: “Our revenue growth has slowed considerably,” the company wrote in a letter: to shareholders Tuesday. “Streaming is winning over linear, as we predicted,: and Netflix titles are very popular globally. However, our relatively high
: household penetration — when including the large number of households
: sharing accounts — combined with competition, is creating revenue growth
: headwinds.”
: "我們的收入增長已大幅放緩,"該公司在週二致股東的信中寫道.
: "正如我們預測的那樣,串流媒體正在戰勝傳統媒體,而 Netflix 的節目在全球非常受歡迎.
: 然而,為數眾多的家庭帳號(包括大量共用帳戶的家庭)加上串流媒體之間的競爭,正在製造
: 收入增長的阻力."
: Netflix previously told shareholders it expected to add 2.5 million net
: subscribers during the first quarter. Analysts had predicted that number
: would be closer to 2.7 million. During the same period a year ago, Netflix
: added 3.98 million paid users.
: Netflix 此前曾告訴股東,預計第一季度淨用戶將增加250萬.分析師此前預測,這一數字將: 接近270萬.在一年前的同一時期,Netflix 增加了398萬付費用戶.
: Co-CEO Reed Hastings said the company is exploring lower-priced, ad-supported: tiers in a bid to bring in new subscribers after years of resisting
: advertisements on the platform.
: 該公司CEO Reed Hastings表示,該公司正在探索價格更低、但夾帶廣告的訂閱方案,
: 以吸引新的使用者,此前該平臺多年來一直抵制廣告.
: Here are the key numbers from the first-quarter report:
: 以下是第一季度報告中的關鍵資料:
: ‧EPS: $3.53 vs, $2.89, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts.
: ‧每股收益: 根據 Refinitiv 對分析師的調查,每股3.53美元對2.89美元.
: ‧Revenue: $7.87 billion vs. $7.93 billion, according to a Refinitiv survey
: of analysts.
: ‧收入: 根據 Refinitiv 對分析師的調查,78.7億美元對79.3億美元.
: ‧Global paid net subscriber additions: A loss of 200,000 compared with 2.73: million adds expected, according to StreetAccount estimates.
: ‧全球付費用戶淨增加: 根據 StreetAccount 的估計,預計將增加273萬用戶,實際上
: 比預期少20萬用戶.
: The company said that the suspension of its service in Russia and the
: winding-down of all Russian paid memberships resulted in a loss of 700,000
: subscribers. Excluding that impact, the company said it would have seen
: 500,000 net additions during the most recent quarter.
: 該公司表示,其在俄羅斯的服務暫停,以及所有俄羅斯付費會員資格的逐步減少,導致70萬: 用戶流失.該公司表示,如果不考慮這一影響,在最近一個季度,該公司將實現50萬淨增長.: Netflix also cited growing competition from recent streaming launches by
: traditional entertainment companies, as well as rampant password sharing for: the recent stall in paid subscriptions.
: NetFlex還提到了傳統娛樂公司最近推出的串流媒體服務,以及最近付費訂閱中猖獗的帳號: 共用,這些都是競爭日益激烈的原因.
: The company estimates that in addition to its 222 million paying households,: access is being shared with more than 100 million additional households
: through account sharing. It warned a global crackdown could be coming.
: 該公司估計,除了2.22億付費家庭外,還有超過1億的家庭通過共用帳戶獲得了使用權.它警: 告說,針對帳號共享的打擊性政策可能即將到來.
: Netflix was an earlier winner when Covid lockdowns sent families inside and: searching for entertainment. But the company now says pandemic-era gains “
: clouded the picture” for the company and that it’s seeing a downturn as
: people return to more normalized out-of-home activities.
: NetFlex是一個早期的贏家,因為Covid19的封鎖提高了黏著率.但該公司現在表示,後疫情: 時代的收益給公司“蒙上了一層陰影”,隨著人們回歸更為正常的戶外活動,公司正面臨經: 濟低迷.
: In an effort to continue to gain share in the market, Netflix has increased: its content spend, particularly on originals. To pay for it, it’s hiked
: prices of its service. The company said Tuesday those price changes are
: helping to bolster revenue, but were partially responsible for a loss of
: 600,000 subscribers in the U.S. and Canada during the most recent quarter.
: 為了繼續獲得市場份額,Netflix 增加了內容支出,尤其是在原創內容上.為了支付費用,它: 提高了服務的價格.該公司週二表示,這些價格變化有助於提高收入,但是在最近一個季度,: 美國和加拿大的用戶流失了60萬.
: While the company is exploring other options for growth, such as adding video: games, analysts and investors are wondering what else Netflix can do to
: bolster profits.
: 儘管 Netflix 正在探索其他增長方式,比如增加視頻遊戲,但分析師和投資者都想知道: Netflix 還能做些什麼來提高利潤.
: The company’s revenue increased nearly 10% to $7.87 billion, but fell short: of analysts’ expectations of $7.93 billion.
: 該公司的收入增長了近10% ,達到78.7億美元,但低於分析師預期的79.3億美元.
: Net income during the quarter ended March 31 fell 6.4% to $1.6 billion, down: from $1.7 billion the year prior. Excluding items, the company earned $3.53: per share, well above the $2.89 per share analysts had expected, according to: a Refinitiv survey.
: 截至3月31日的季度淨利潤為16億美元,比上年同期的17億美元下降了6.4% .根據
: Refinitiv 的調查,剔除專案後,該公司每股收益為3.53美元,遠高於分析師此前預期的: 2.89美元.
: The company’s free cash flow amounted to $802 million during the quarter, up: from $692 million a year earlier.
: 本季度,該公司的自由現金流為8.02億美元,高於去年同期的6.92億美元.
: Correction: Netflix reported revenue of $7.87 billion for the first quarter: of 2022. An earlier version misstated this.
: 更正: Netflix 公佈的2022年第一季度收入為78.7億美元.

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我個人也是覺得實體娛樂會慢慢回來 但現任CEO就是自廢武功 把電影部門那邊 全部權力下放冷凍 只專攻發展Disney Plus 要求所有公司重心都是圍繞串流發展 Pixar那邊已經很多員工不滿 有些片子原本計畫要上映電影院 都被拿去D+來助長訂閱率