[請益] 美國經濟可望軟著陸？

原文標題：

U.S. economy on track for soft landing - Dallas Fed

原文連結：

https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/bonds/idUSN26247192/

發布時間：

September 27, 2007 3:36 AM GMT+8

記者署名：

Reuters

原文內容：

WASHINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures are easing and the
economy should manage a soft landing, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said on Wednesday.

"The latest data reinforce the impression of an economy in which growth
remains moderate and inflationary pressures are likely to continue to
subside," it said in a national economic review written by senior Dallas Fed staff economist Tao Wu.

"A soft landing with a slow convergence to trend growth is probable, unless
uncertainties among households and investors suddenly trigger a sharp
consumption slowdown or the credit crunch spreads beyond housing the sector," he said.

The U.S. central bank slashed interest rates by an unexpectedly bold half
percentage point last week to 4.75 percent to shield the economy from the
slumping housing market, which has triggered a global credit crunch.

Interest rate futures currently imply an 86 percent probability the Fed will
cut rates by another quarter point at its next scheduled meeting, on
Oct. 30-31.

"Macroeconomic implications of the credit tightening are still quite limited
so far, although potentially could be more severe over the coming quarters if the mortgage credit crunch goes further (and) deeper and spreads to other
sectors," Wu said.

The Fed warned in the policy statement that accompanied its rate cut that the outlook for the economy was uncertain, while some inflation risks remain.

Wu said the latest data from the hosing sector showed that it had yet to
bottom out, while a 4,000 dip in the number of non-farm jobs in August was
'alarming'.

On the other hand, he noted that the August consumer price index declined by
0.1 percent compared with the previous month while measures of underlying
inflation had also softened.

"Recent months have seen a gradual deceleration in the growth of other core
consumer price indexes as well. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures edged up 0.1 percent in July, having risen 1.9 percent over the past 12 months,"
he said.

機器翻譯：

華盛頓，9月26日（路透社）- 美國的通脹壓力正在減輕，

經濟應該能夠實現軟著陸，達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行在週三表示。

"最新數據強化了這樣的印象：經濟增長仍然適度，通脹壓力可能會繼續減少。"
達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行高級經濟學家Tao Wu在一份全國經濟評論中表示。

"除非家庭和投資者之間的不確定性突然引發消費急劇放緩，
或信貸緊縮擴散到住房以外的其他領域，
否則軟著陸和緩慢趨近趨勢增長是可能的。"他說。

美國中央銀行上週意外大幅下調利率半個百分點至4.75%，
以保護經濟免受下滑的住房市場影響，該市場已引發全球信貸緊縮。

目前的利率期貨顯示，
聯邦儲備銀行在下次預定會議（10月30日至31日）上再降息四分之一點的概率為86%。

"信貸緊縮的宏觀經濟影響到目前為止仍然相當有限，
儘管如果抵押貸款信貸緊縮進一步加深並擴散到其他領域，
未來幾個季度可能會更加嚴重。"Tao Wu說。

聯邦儲備銀行在伴隨降息的政策聲明中警告，經濟前景不確定，
儘管仍存在一些通脹風險。

Tao Wu表示，來自住房領域的最新數據顯示，該領域尚未觸底，
而8月份非農就業人數減少4,000的情況"令人擔憂"。

另一方面，他指出，8月份的消費者物價指數較上個月下降了0.1%，
而基礎通脹的指標也有所減弱。

"最近幾個月，其他核心消費者物價指數的增長也逐漸放緩。
核心個人消費支出在7月份上升了0.1%，在過去12個月中上升了1.9%。"他說。

心得/評論：

這次有不一樣嗎？華爾街今年應該是拿不同劇本吧？

次貸危機一開始時沒有QE

是不是只要JPow帶著他的印鈔機重新開始QE 一切都會好起來的

對嗎？

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